Healthcare Economy

Bing COVID-19 Tracker 6/27/2020 (8:41 AM): New York State Death Increase Near Zero, Africa's Tiny Numbers

According to the Bing COVID-19 Tracker, the number of global cases has reached 9,764,997, after a one-day gain of 156,183. The figure could reach 10 million within two days. For weeks, the United States, the United Kingdom and most of the rest of Europe had decreasing numbers of new cases and deaths, while the figures picked up in Russia, India and Latin America. That is no longer true, particularly for counts in the United States.

Active cases worldwide are up to 4,354,862, and they are 45% of the total of global confirmed cases. The recovered case count is 4,917,328, which is up by 109,092. The positive difference between the daily increase in recovered cases and active cases continues to show improvement. For several days, this daily spread was above 500,000, one of the few good signs as the pandemic continues.

Global fatal cases have hit 492,807, higher by 3,402. At the current rate, the number could top 500,000 in two days. They are just above 5% of the world’s confirmed cases total, but many experts believe the death count is much too low, in part because many developing nations cannot track or accurately count numbers.

It is notable that the acceleration of the spread of the disease worldwide is because of an explosion of new cases in America. The increase in confirmed cases there has been by more than 30,000 in each of the past five days, and it jumped by over 40,000 today. Several large states are responsible for the U.S. swell, including the three largest states by population: California, Texas and Florida.

Total confirmed cases in the United States, the hardest-hit nation, have reached 2,511,453. The surge of 42,266 is the largest for a single day since the start of the pandemic. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) commented that the actual U.S. confirmed case figure may be above 20 million and many of these people have no symptoms. The official U.S. confirmed cases count is 26% of the world’s total.

Active COVID-19 cases there totaled 1,613,374, and recovered cases reached 771,155, after rising by 6,094. It remains a bad sign that there are many more active cases than recovered ones. American coronavirus fatalities hit 126,924, or 647 higher in a day. Most days recently, this figure has been close to the daily increase in deaths at the peak in late April and early May.

In Brazil, the second hardest hit nation, confirmed cases have reached 1,280,054, up by 46,907, and they are still growing rapidly at a pace of nearly 300,000 per week. The death count rose by 1,055 to 56,109. Carefully followed forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show that COVID deaths in Brazil will move ahead of those in the United States by the end of July.

The number of confirmed cases in Russia is third highest. Though the daily increase remains extremely modest, the pace has started to accelerate. Confirmed cases were last reported as 627,646, after adding 6,852. That is still a fraction of the confirmed case gains in either the United States or Brazil. Russia posted a COVID-19 death increase of just 188 to 8,969, which is an incredibly small increase, given the size of the population. It is a fraction of the increases in the two hardest-hit nations.

India, the fourth hardest hit country, also posted relatively small figures compared to Brazil and the United States. It has a confirmed case count of 510,692, a modest increase of 18,700. Deaths have reached 15,712, after rising by 393. The official Indian figures almost certainly are too low. Bhramar Mukherjee, a biostatistics expert at the University of Michigan, has forecast that India could post as many as 925,000 confirmed cases by mid-July.

New York State Death Rates Drops Toward Zero

New York, the hardest-hit state by far, posted 14 deaths in the past day, which took its total to 24,814. Total confirmed cases climbed by 805 to 391,220. The death count had risen by over 500 on most days between April 3 and April 19, and it stayed above 200 a day until May 9. Over the same period, new cases increased by 7,000 on many days.

Daily confirmed case count increases also have dropped sharply in the counties that make up much of New York City: Queens County, Kings County and Bronx County.

Africa Numbers Remain Very Low

Several of the world’s most populous nations are in sub-Saharan Africa. These include Nigeria, with a population of 206,139,587, which puts it seventh in the world by this measure. The Democratic Republic of the Congo ranks 16th, with a population of 89,561,404. The numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in these counties are extremely small, and deaths per day are in the single digits.

Nigeria has posted 23,298 confirmed cases, up by 684. This puts it 45th in the world by that measure. The number is about the same as Iowa’s. Deaths in Nigeria were up by five to 554.

Congo’s confirmed cases total 6,552, or 141 higher. That is about the same as South Dakota’s figure. The nation reported seven more deaths to total 149.

There is no single explanation for these low numbers. Either the disease has barely touched their populations or their developing world government infrastructures make it nearly impossible to post accurate data at all.