UBS Very Bullish on Unusual List of Housing Recovery Stocks (HD, LOW, TWO, FRC, AMP, C, CMCSA, F, GNW, MET, MHK, SWK, TWC, TJX, WFC)
Everybody in the business of writing, reporting or talking about stocks and the stock market has highlighted the spectacular run of the housing stocks since the March 2009 low. Every firm on Wall St. has a list of home building stocks for its clients to own. We have written at length about how solid retailing names like Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are benefiting from the new boom.
In a fresh research report, the equity strategists at UBS A.G. (NYSE: UBS) have dug even deeper to find additional stocks that will reap the rewards of the new spurt in housing. In November they predicted house price appreciation of 4% to 5% annually over the next three or four years. Such price appreciation combined with slow, but sure economic recovery, likely will lead to 12% annual growth in single-family housing starts over the same period. That kind of solid growth has an ancillary effect on a wide range of industries.
The team at UBS concede that if there is risk to their projections, it may very well be to the upside. With the housing market recovery now more widely accepted among investors, the challenge is to find companies that likely still have upside from additional gains in the housing market. They in turn put together a screening process to identify industries that will benefit from the housing recovery but are still attractively valued.
Here are the stocks on the UBS U.S. housing recovery list:
In today’s report the analysts add two new names to the list: mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) Two Harbors Investment Corp. (NYSE: TWO) and regional bank First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC). There is no Wall St. consensus price target for Two Harbors at this time. Investors should note the stock goes ex-dividend on March 28 for the quarterly distribution and a special stock dividend. The Thomson/First Call estimate for First Republic Bank is $39.50.
Ameriprise Financial Inc. (NYSE: AMP) makes the list. Its consensus estimate price target is $75.
Money center leader Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is another financial services firm expected to benefit from the growth. The consensus estimate is $51.
Cable giant Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is there to provide entertainment, Internet and phone service as the number of homes increases. The consensus price target is $47.
Automaker Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to benefit. The consensus target for the venerable car company is $15. Investors are paid a solid 3.00% dividend as well.
Providing mortgage insurance, Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) makes the UBS list, which is surprising considering the turnaround and woes it has faced from its mortgage insurance operations. The consensus estimate for the stock is $10.25.
Providing personal, property and casualty insurance among other products, MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET) is also projected as an insurance winner. The consensus price for the stock is $44.50.
Carpet and floor covering manufacturer Mohawk Industries Inc. (NYSE: MHK) is a solid candidate to see immediate benefits from home building. The consensus estimate is $115.
New homeowners may be called on to be handy around the house. Hand and power tool giant Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE: SWK) can fill that need. The consensus price target for this well-known name is $85.
New homes also may require many new items to furnish, decorate and add the basics. Off-price retailer TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) is where many price conscience new owners may shop. The consensus estimate for this popular retail stock is $50.
Different areas of the country have different cable providers. That is why Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) also makes the UBS list. The consensus target is $103.
Rounding out the stocks on the U.S. housing recovery list is mortgage lending leader Wells Fargo & Co. Inc. (NYSE: WFC). The consensus estimate for the stock is $39. Shareholders are also paid a 2.70% dividend.
The UBS list highlights names that are above and beyond the usual list of materials and other building products used in actual construction. If their analysis in construction growth is correct, not only will the stocks on this list benefit, the American economy will get a needed shot in the arm.