CoreLogic July Home Price Index Cools Off Slightly

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U.S. home prices rose 6.2% in July compared with the same month a year ago, according to data from CoreLogic released Tuesday in the research firm’s Home Price Insights monthly report. The data include sales of distressed properties.

Month over month, June prices rose 0.3%, including distressed home sales. CoreLogic expects housing prices to rise by 5.1% year over year by July 2019 and to drop by 0.2% month over month in August 2018.

Home prices rose 6.8% year over year and 0.7% month over month in June. The July totals show a slight cooling off in the months-long streak of around 7% year-over-year increases.

Since the housing market bottomed out in March 2011, the CoreLogic index has risen by 57%. As of July, home prices are now 5.1% higher than they were at the April 2006 pre-crash peak. Adjusted for inflation, however, home prices are 13.5% below the April 2006 peak.

CEO Frank Martell noted:

Many consumers see their homes as good investments. Our consumer research indicates homeowners, especially those in high-price growth markets, are confident that by waiting to sell, they will receive a greater return on investment than they would today. In other words, sellers are largely staying put. With fewer homes on the market, price pressure will continue to rise.

Chief economist Frank Nothaft added:

With increased interest rates and home prices, the CoreLogic Home Price Index is rising at a slower rate than it was earlier this year. While markets in the western part of the country continue to experience rapid home-price growth, many of those metros are over-valued, and will likely experience a slowdown soon.

Including distressed sales, home prices rose the most year over year in Nevada (12.9%), Idaho (12.3%) and Washington (10.4%).

Through July, 40% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were overvalued, 20% were undervalued and 40% were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 50% were overvalued, 12% were undervalued and 38% were at value. CoreLogic defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.

Among U.S. metro areas, Las Vegas has posted the largest year-over-year index gain, up 13.5%. Seattle is up 11.0% while Denver and Los Angeles are up 7.6% and Boston is up 6.1% to round out the top five.

See CoreLogic’s July report for more detail.