U.S. home prices rose 3.5% in October, compared with the same month a year ago, according to data from CoreLogic’s Home Price Insights monthly report released Tuesday. The data includes sales of distressed properties.
Home prices rose 0.5% month over month in October. Year over year, the index has increased every month since February 2012 and is up 62.5% since bottoming out in March 2011.
CoreLogic forecasts housing prices to rise by 0.2% month over month in November and by 5.4% year over year in October 2020.
As of October 2019, home prices are now about 9.4% higher than they were at the April 2006 pre-crash peak. Adjusted for inflation, however, home prices remain about 11.4% below the peak.
CEO Frank Martell noted:
Nationally, over the past year, home prices are up 3.5% with the rate of growth accelerating from September into October. We expect home prices to rise at least another 5% over the next 12 months. Interestingly, this persistent increase in home prices isn’t deterring older millennials. In fact, 25% of those surveyed anticipate purchasing a home over the next six to eight months.
CoreLogic’s chief economist, Frank Nothaft, added:
Local home-price growth can deviate widely from the change in our U.S. index. While we saw prices up 3.5% nationally last year, home prices also declined in 22 metropolitan areas. Price softness occurred in some high-cost urban areas and in metros with weak employment growth during the past year.
Including distressed sales, home prices rose the most year over year in Idaho (11.9%), Maine (7.5%) and Indiana (7.1%). Year over year, home prices rose in every state.
Through October, housing stock in 35% of the top 100 metropolitan areas was overvalued, 27% was undervalued and 38% was at value. In just the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% was overvalued, 20% was undervalued and 40% was at value. CoreLogic defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.
Among U.S. metro areas Denver posted the largest year-over-year index change, up 3.4% in October. Washington, D.C., prices rose 3.3%, and both Miami and Las Vegas prices rose 3.0%. Los Angeles prices rose 2.5% to round out the top five.
The full October home price report is available at the CoreLogic website.