Infrastructure

Have Utilities Now Sold Off Too Much?

Utilities have been loved for years by investors. In many ways, the power-generation companies and electric utilities have replaced traditional CDs and other income-generating investments. The year 2015 is starting out with a very different tone for utility investors. What is very obvious is that institutions and retail investors alike have been exiting the sector for the better part of the past 60 days in order to be out ahead of the coming Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

The question to ask is if the utilities and power-generation giants have sold off too much or whether there will be more pain ahead. Here is an example of just how bad the carnage has been: Of the 12 utilities and generators we follow with market caps in excess of $10 billion, there has been a combined market cap erosion of almost $40 billion.

One new risk has come up with California’s drought. Fitch warned that Governor Brown’s executive order to reduce water usage will lead to lower revenues for the state’s utilities and could pressure a few ratings. The ratings agency did at least signal that many California utilities can mitigate this risk by decoupling revenues from sales.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to look under the hood of the top companies it tracks, specifically Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK), American Electric Power Co. Inc. (NYSE: AEP), Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE: XEL), Southern Co. (NYSE: SO), Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE: D) and PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG). The intent was to cover a large footprint in America: the Midwest and central southern states, California and the West Coast, the Northeast and the Southeast. We looked at the performance of the shares by how far down each is from their 52-week high. We also tracked dividend yields, forward earnings estimates, payout ratios, forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and more.

Duke Energy

Duke Energy’s regulated utilities segment operates in the Carolinas, Florida, Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana. This segment owns approximately 50,000 megawatts (MW) of generation and serves approximately 7.3 million retail electric customers in six states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States, with a service area covering approximately 95,000 square miles.

Shares of Duke were down 0.5% at $76.90. Compared to the 52-week trading range of $68.81 to $89.97, shares are down 14.5% from the highs. Duke has an annual dividend of $3.18, a yield of 4.1%. The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for its earnings per share (EPS) in 2015 and 2016 are $4.67 and $4.96, making the payout ratio 68% and 64%, respectively. The forward P/E ratio for 2015 is 16.5 and it is 15.5 for 2016. Duke has a market cap of $54 billion.

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American Electric Power

American Electric Power delivers electricity to over 5.3 million customers in 11 states, and it also owns the nation’s largest electricity transmission system, with over 40,000 miles in its network. Some of its states covered include Texas, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Shares of American Electric were trading recently at $55.66, in a 52-week trading range of $49.06 to $65.38. Shares are almost 15% down from the highs. The stock has an annual dividend of $2.12, a yield of 3.8%. The consensus estimate for American Electric’s EPS in 2015 is $3.51 and in 2016 it is $3.69. The payout ratios for 2015 and 2016 are 60.4% and 57.5%, and forward P/E ratios are 15.9 and 15.1, respectively. The company has a market cap of $27 billion.

Xcel Energy

Xcel Energy primarily operates in the Midwest through its generation services in coal, nuclear, natural gas and more. It serves residential, commercial and industrial customers, as well as public authorities in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin.

Xcel shares were at $34.28, within the 52-week trading range of $29.60 to $38.35. At the current price level, shares are down just over 10% from the high. Xcel has an annual dividend of $1.28, a yield of 3.7%. The consensus EPS estimates for 2015 and 2016 are $2.09 and $2.22, which makes the payout ratio 61.2% and 57.7%, respectively. For 2015, the forward P/E ratio is 16.4, as well as 54.3 for 2016. Xcel has a market cap of $17 billion.

Southern Company

Southern Company operates in the Southeast with generation services coming from natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydro. It claims to serve more than 4.4 million customers via Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Gulf Power and Mississippi Power.

Shares of Southern Company were recently trading for $44.24. Compared to the 52-week trading range of $41.87 to $53.16, shares are down almost 17% from the high. The company has an annual dividend of $2.10, a yield of 4.7%. The consensus EPS estimates in 2015 and 2016 are $2.84 and $2.93, making the payout ratio 73.9% and 71.7%, respectively. The forward P/E ratio for 2015 is 15.6, and it is 15.1 for 2016. Southern Company has a market cap of $40 billion.

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Dominion Resources

Dominion Resources is into electric distribution and transmission, gas distribution and transmission and generation. It serves utility and retail energy customers in 12 states, including Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Shares of Dominion were recently trading at $71.27, in a 52-week trading range of $64.71 to $80.89. Shares are almost 12% down from the high. The stock has an annual dividend of $2.59, a yield of 3.6%. The consensus estimates for its EPS are $3.69 in 2015 and $3.90 in 2016. The payout ratios for 2015 and 2016 are 70.2% and 66.4%, and forward P/E ratios are 19.3 and 18.3, respectively. The market cap is $42 billion.

PG&E

PG&E operates through Pacific Gas and Electric Company, and it transmits, delivers and sells electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural customers primarily in northern and central California. It serves approximately 16 million customers.

PG&E shares were at $53.14, within the 52-week trading range of $42.85 to $60.21. Shares are down 11.5% from the high. Its annual dividend is $1.82, for a yield of 3.4%. The consensus estimates for its EPS in 2015 and 2016 are $3.49 and $3.67, which makes the payout ratio 52.1% and 49.6%, respectively. For 2015, the forward P/E ratio is 15.2, and it is 14.5 for 2016. PG&E has a market cap of $25 billion.

ALSO READ: 4 RBC Utility Stock Picks to Buy Even If Interest Rates Rise

In addition, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEMKT: XLU) was recently down by 0.5% at $44.30. Compared to its 52-week range of $40.07 to $49.78, this fund is down 11% from the high at the end of January. That may not feel like much carnage compared to traditional market moves, but that is just in about 70 days.

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