What, Me Worry? American Confidence Unshaken

Whether total unemployment is at 17% of the population or the housing market is still collapsing. the American tradition of confidence in the future continues. It is not unlike BP’s certainty that it can fix the leak from the Deepwater Horizon within the next few days.

According to Gallup, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is at -22, the same place it was in early May. Last April, the figure was -34. The number is the percentage of those who think the economy is getting better compared to those who think its is getting worse.

The research firm said that “Forty-one percent of Americans believe the economy is “getting better” in early May, matching April, which is the highest level of optimism about the future direction of the U.S. economy since Gallup began daily monitoring in January 2008.”

Forty-one percent of Americans believe the economy is “getting better” in early May, matching April, which is the highest level of optimism about the future direction of the U.S. economy since Gallup began daily monitoring in January 2008.

The other fact of note from the Gallup poll is the number of people who believe that the economy is “excellent” or “good”. That does not appears to true up with unemployment numbers and the desperation that it creates, and may simply be misplaced optimism which is often the hallmark of the end of a long recession. Economic trouble lingers, but people believe that the situation is improving. As they find out that their outlook was misplace, pessimism sets in for months.

The numbers will dip again, and it may only take a few weeks. Look at the February data.

Douglas A. McIntyre