A Sudden Rise In February Unemployment

If there are any worries that lingers with economists about the current American financial situation, jobs and housing are about all that is left. The argument has been persuasively made that inflation will stay low because of the tepid recovery. US export activity has recently moved in a positive direction.

A new Gallup Poll shows that “Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February — up from 9.8% at the end of January.” And, “The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in mid-February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% in January.”

The notion that a long-term jobless recovery could be mounted simply is not true. Too many people are out of work for consumer spending to be rekindled to pre-recession levels. Consumer spending is still too large a factor of GDP for other segments of the economy to offset it flagged fortunes.

There has been hope that the Bush tax cuts would drive consumer activity. By now, most people know the exact amount of their individual benefit and whether it can be used for more than daily bill payment.

Winter will be slower to turn to spring than most had hoped.

Methodology: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 16-Feb. 15, 2011, with a random sample of 18,082 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

Douglas A. McIntyre