China, India, and Japan together take about one-quarter of Iran’s daily exports of crude oil. Under new sanctions being imposed by the US and the EU, that quantity is likely to drop significantly.
Last year India took an average of around 280,000 barrels/day of Iranian crude, Japan took about 313,000 barrels/day, and China took nearly 600,000 barrels/day, according to a report at Bloomberg News. Indian imports from Iran rose in January, to around 550,000 barrels/day in January and does not expect to let the tougher sanctions cut its Iranian supply.
Japan is negotiating with the US on the level of cuts it must take, with a proposed cut of -11% the figure currently on the table. China is using the tougher sanctions as a lever to bargain down the price of crude, and cut its imports from Iran by -14% in January. China has been buying about 20% of Iran’s total production.
Iran can ill afford any further losses to its Asian buyers. Right now Iran is unable to find a buyer for about 400,000 barrels/day of its production. While it’s likely that its three largest Asian customers will pick up most of that, Iran won’t receive top dollar for its crude.
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