When You Can’t Sell Vodka in Poland & Russia (CEDC)

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By Jon C. Ogg Published

Making alcohol and spirits in Eastern Europe and selling to Poland, Russia, and Eastern Europe should be a slam dunk of a business model.  Right?  Apparently not.  Central European Distribution Corporation (NASDAQ: CEDC) is getting crushed after its earnings report.  The Polish vodka maker also faces a debt problem.

The company posted a wider loss and the blame is in part due to soft sales in Russia.  Soft vodka sales in Russia?  It almost sounds like a joke.  Unfortunately, it is no joke.

For its latest and fourth quarter, the loss from continuing operations was $456 million.  That comes to -$6.29 EPS.  If you exclude one-time and abnormal items, the non-GAAP earnings would have been $0.11 EPS. 

Where the story gets interesting is that sales were up about 22% to $280.1 million, but that is on discounting for a competitive market and with higher costs than expected.

It also looks as though the company does not have enough cash on hand to meet a $300 million debt payment due next year, so it may have to consider an offer for a larger stake from its largest shareholder or it may have to use other capital raising alternatives.

Shares were down almost 30% at one point earlier this morning and the stock is now down 19.9% at $4.34 against a 52-week range of $3.08 to $14.65.  To put things in context, the new post-drop market cap is only $308 million.

This is a situation where a long slow bleed could come, or the largest shareholder could potentially wrestle much more control.

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.

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