Is the bull market ready to take a breather after more than six years? That is what seven days of negative Dow Jones Industrial Average performance will make investors wonder. Still, the one trend that has proved true over and over for almost four years now is that investors have found different reasons each time to buy every single market dip. Some investors are also now starting to look beyond traditional Dow and S&P 500 stocks for value and upside, particularly if there is a mix of growth and value that is not as widely known.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst upgrades and downgrades each day of the week to find hidden values and new trading and investing ideas for its readers. It turns out that in the analyst calls covering stocks to buy that some analyst calls are far more aggressive than the 8% to 15% usually seen for upside in Dow or S&P 500 stocks. Some analyst price targets are calling for close to 50%, or even 100%, in implied upside.
The first thing that investors need to consider here is that if an analyst has much higher upside then there is just that much more implied risk versus traditional Dow or S&P 500 stocks. In the more speculative stocks, particularly in emerging pharma or other speculative areas, there is not even an assurance that these companies will survive if something goes wrong.
24/7 Wall St. has reviewed six of the very aggressive analyst calls from this past week. These have almost 50% upside projections on the low end, and they have up to just over 100% implied upside on the higher end. Also note that a more detailed explanation of risks and warnings for investors to consider in these very aggressive analyst calls follows our look at these stocks.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is one of those analyst calls that will either look like genius or insanity, depending on how the metals sector and the global growth economies do in the next year. UBS raised its rating to Buy from Neutral early in the week, and the firm assigned a $14.00 price target. Alcoa’s prior closing price was $9.64, but a 5% drop on Friday put shares down at $9.41. Alcoa even hit a new 52-week low of $9.36 on Friday, down handily from the 52-week high of $17.75. The UBS call is based more on historic valuations than it was on any single great catalyst that is unknown to the rest of Wall Street.
Still, this $9.41 closing price leaves an implied upside of 49%, before taking Alcoa’s 1.3% dividend into account. Another consideration here is that the consensus analyst price target is a tad higher at $14.33. The prior 52-week low ahead of the call was $9.58, and there is always a reminder that investors should consider: stocks that hit a 52-week low often tend to keep hitting more 52-week lows before they recover.