When investors see the Dow Jones industrial average up 2.3% (or 625 points) after election day, they probably assume it’s a great day for all stocks. It turns out that technology and health care led the rally. With the presidential race still not called, and with the high prospects of a mixed Congress remaining in a state of gridlock, some stocks in the Dow are having some dismal post-election trading while others are surging.
24/7 Wall St. has been tracking some of the key winners, but looking at why some Dow stocks may have quite a bit of influence on some of the largest competitors in their sectors.
One issue that is likely to occur under the assumption that a Biden presidency and a Republican-controlled Senate is that the companies that were expected to be the big stimulus spending winners are now not as likely to see the growth they would have received under expanded stimulus. Most investors believe a stimulus package will come about. It’s just unlikely to be as massive as some of the bulls may have hoped for.
Another consideration about the Dow is that it’s not even the strongest gainer. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was up 4.1%, with its vast election winners as more regulation may now be dead on arrival. The S&P 500 was up 2.9% as health care winners also played a major role.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) was expected to be a big winner if a massive stimulus bill was coming. The U.S. probably needs to pour trillions of dollars into the aging infrastructure that the nation depends upon. That ranges from dams to bridges to roads to ports and beyond. Caterpillar equipment would have been used all along the way.
Shares of Caterpillar were down 6.3% at $157.07 on Wednesday afternoon. That is after roughly a 10% gain over the last week after Goldman Sachs saw strong expectations. Its 52-week range is $87.50 to $171.26, and its consensus target price from Refinitiv was $162.81. That put this stock previously above the average analyst target price, and now it seems any massive stimulus led spending may not look as easy as it might have been just a day earlier.
Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) was down as well, as the chemicals maker would have been a stimulus winner from all the inputs that would have been needed. The chemicals giant now likely will not see massive stimulus spending had a blue wave been seen.
Shares of Dow were traded down 4% at $46.83 on Wednesday afternoon, and its shares had run up almost 9% in recent days since last week’s sell-off. Its 52-week range is $21.95 to $56.25, and its consensus target price was $50.59.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was also down on Wednesday. What is interesting here is that this now likely means that Treasury or Fed officials are now unlikely to be able to propose radical regulations if the Senate looks to be able to block it. That said, lower stimulus money means less money that can be sloshed around by consumers and businesses alike, and it may mean that more defaults and credit issues are headed its way. Still, JPMorgan managed to post unexpected growth in the last quarter and that took place without stimulus for over half of the quarter.
Shares of JPMorgan were down 2% at $101.14 on Wednesday afternoon. Its 52-week range is $76.91 to $141.10, and its consensus target price from Refinitiv was $117.49.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) had rallied more than 5% since the end of last week up until Wednesday, but one key issue that would have helped 3M under a stimulus package was an explosion of healthcare protection equipment (PPE) being bought in mass to build a national stockpile and to avoid depending upon China for that. While that logic sounds right, it seems hard to imagine that a stockpile of PPE would be fought against. Analysts had been aggressively upgrading 3M ahead of earnings.
Shares of 3M traded down 2% at $161.96 on Wednesday afternoon. The 52-week range is $114.04 to $182.55, and the consensus analyst target was $173.44.
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is being viewed as a stimulus loser because it would have been much more money for states, the federal government and many agencies to hire them for major IT-related projects. Investors have also been skeptical of IBM’s pending breakup, but that is another matter entirely.
IBM’s stock had been up nearly 5% from last Friday the day of the election, but its stock was down nearly 2% at $112.20 on Wednesday afternoon. The 52-week range is $90.56 to $158.75, and the consensus target price was $135.93.