Investing

Earnings Previews: Clean Energy, Fisker, Plug Power, Virgin Galactic

Paul Ausick

Published: August 4, 2021 10:35 am

Earnings reports released Wednesday morning were again overwhelmingly positive, with the vast majority of companies reporting profits that beat consensus estimates. An Australian bank noted Tuesday that nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive June-quarter earnings surprises so far.
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After markets close on Wednesday, five firms we covered in an earlier preview (Electronic Arts, Fastly, Lumen, MGM Resorts and Uber) are due to report results. Before markets open on Thursday, results will be released by Hecla Mining, Moderna and ViacomCBS.

Here are previews of four companies set to report quarterly results after Thursday’s closing bell.

Clean Energy

One year ago, shares of Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) traded at around $2.40. Tuesday, the stock closed at $7.37, a growth rate of more than 200%. Still, that is less than half the February high of nearly $20. Clean Energy, a supplier of natural gas fuels, was among the meme stocks that forced a short squeeze in late January. Since then, short interest dwindled to around 2.5 million shares before rising to nearly 17 million shorted shares in late June. Recent trading in the shares has been only about one-third of the daily average of 16.2 million.

The stock is lightly covered, with just seven surveyed brokerages providing coverage. Four rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, with one Hold rating. At a recent price of around $7.40 and based on a median price target of $16, the stock’s upside potential is 116%. At the high price target of $27, the upside potential soars to 265%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast to total $75.1 million, down about 2.6% sequentially and up more than 25% year over year. Analysts are forecasting a break-even quarter, better than the one-cent loss in the first quarter and a two-cent loss last year. For the full fiscal year, the current forecast calls for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02, compared to a loss per share of $0.04 a year ago. Revenue is expected to increase by 3.3% to $301.32 million.

Clean Energy trades at 316.1 times expected 2021 EPS, 245.8 times estimated 2022 earnings and 81.9 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $2.36 to $19.79. Clean Energy does not pay a dividend.

Fisker

Luxury electric vehicle maker Fisker Inc. (NYSE: FSR) came public through a SPAC merger in October of last year. Since then, the stock is up more than 45%, but way down from a late February peak gain of around 180%. Even including that spike, the year-to-date gain is barely 1%. What is holding Fisker back are concerns about its time to market. The first vehicles are not expected to be in production until late next year.

Of 10 brokerages covering the firm, six rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy and three rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $14.80, the stock’s potential upside based on a median price target of $24 is 62%. At the high target of $40, the upside potential is 170%.
Fisker is not expected to post any revenue in the second quarter, after reporting $20,000 in revenue in the first quarter. On an adjusted basis, the second-quarter loss per share is forecast at $0.25, compared with a first-quarter loss of $0.11 per share. No revenue is projected for the 2021 fiscal year, and the anticipated loss per share is $0.98.

Based on analysts’ sales forecast for 2022 and 2023, Fisker’s enterprise value-to-sales multiple is 10.0 in 2022 and 1.5 in 2023, based on 2022 revenue of $340 million and 2023 revenue of $2.29 billion. The stock’s 52-week range (including its time as a SPAC) is $8.70 to $31.96. The company does not pay a dividend.
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Plug Power

Hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG) has enjoyed a 244% increase in its share price over the past 12 months. But, oh, what might have been. The stock hit an all-time high of more than $75 a share in late January, but a March announcement of a restatement of financial statements for the past three years sent shares down to around $20. Since the May 10 low, shares are up by nearly a third.

Of 22 analysts, 14 have ratings of Buy or Strong Buy on the stock, and another six recommend holding the shares. At a price of around $26.50, the potential upside based on a median price target of $42 is about 58%. At the high price target of $78, the upside potential is 194%.

Analysts have forecast second-quarter revenue of $111.21 million, up more than 54% sequentially and more than 63% year over year. The quarterly adjusted loss per share is forecast at $0.07, compared with a loss per share of $0.12 in the first quarter and a loss of $0.03 per share in the year-ago quarter. For the full year, analysts expect revenue of $486.41 million, compared with net negative revenue of $100.47 million in 2020. That negative revenue reflected a noncash charge related to the accelerated vesting of certain warrants.

Plug Power is not expected to post a profit in any of 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at 23.6 times estimated enterprise value-to-sales for 2021, 15.0 times for 2022 and 9.8 times for 2023. The stock’s 52-week range is $8.98 to $75.49, and the company does not pay a dividend.

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Virgin Galactic

Space exploration company Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) has seen its shares add about 32% over the past 12 months. The flight path has been anything but smooth. Shares spiked to an all-time high in early February before plunging to a year-to-date low in mid-May. They reached a second peak in late June after receiving FAA approval to fly customers into space. Then, following rival Blue Origin’s flight on July 10, the shares dropped about 24% and have not really recovered.

Of 11 analysts covering the stock, five have assigned ratings of Buy or Strong Buy, and another five rate the stock at Hold. At the trading price of around $32, the stock’s upside potential based on a median price target of $41 is 28%. At the high target of $51, the upside potential is 59%.

The company is expected to post revenue of $130,000 in the second quarter. Virgin Galactic reported no revenue in 2020 or in the first quarter of this year. Analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $0.32, better than the $0.55 per share loss in the first quarter, but slightly worse than the year-ago quarterly loss of $0.30 per share. For the full year, the adjusted loss per share is pegged at $1.40, compared with a loss per share of $1.25 last year. Revenue is forecast to come in at $2.45 million, compared with just $240,000 in 2020.

Virgin Galactic is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple for 2022 is 127.4 and for 2023 is 36.3. The stock’s 52-week range is $14.27 to $62.80. Virgin Galactic does not pay a dividend.