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Earnings Previews: APA, Home Depot, Macy's, Medtronic, Williams

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After markets closed on Thursday, lithium producer Livent reported results that beat on both the top and bottom lines and issued upside revenue guidance for 2022. The report partially salved investors’ disappointment with another lithium miner, Albemarle, that reported results on Wednesday. Livent’s report lifted both stocks Friday morning.

Even though markets are closed on Monday to observe the President’s Day holiday, several companies are scheduled to release results at some point. We have previewed two of them here.

On Tuesday morning, we will hear from a Dow Jones industrial average component and a bellwether department store chain, among others.

APA

Independent oil and gas producer APA Corp. (NYSE: APA) is scheduled to release quarterly results on Monday. Over the past 12 months, the company’s stock price has increased by nearly 76%, with virtually all the growth coming since late September when crude oil prices began their steady climb higher. It will be interesting to see whether APA follows the lead of other independents like Pioneer, Devon and Continental in limiting production increases to no more than 5% and returning more cash to investors, rather than spending more on new capital projects.

Analysts remain bullish on the stock, with 13 of 29 giving the shares a rating of Buy or Strong Buy and 15 more rating the stock a Hold. At the recent price of around $32.00 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $36 is about 12.5%. At the high price target of $58, the upside potential is about 81.3%.

For the company’s fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, analysts expect APA to report revenue of $1.94 billion, which would be up 17.7% sequentially and 50% higher year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at $1.46, up 49% sequentially and up from a per-share loss of $0.05 year over year. For the full fiscal year, EPS is forecast at $4.13, up from a year-ago loss of $1.08 per share, on sales of $6.95 billion, up 61.4%.

The stock trades at 7.8 times expected 2021 EPS, 5.3 times estimated 2022 earnings of $6.14 and 5.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $5.93 per share. APA’s 52-week trading range is $15.54 to $36.46. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.14 (yield of 1.54%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 85.4%.


Home Depot

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) has added about 29% to its share price over the past 12 months. Since posting a recent high in late December, the stock has dropped by more than 16% on investors’ concerns over rising interest rates and the effect that could have on home building and remodeling.

Home Depot benefitted from the pandemic as people took the opportunity to make improvements to their dwellings, but that benefit is likely gone now. New CEO Ted Decker, a 22-year veteran at the company, is moving to the corner office on March 1. The Dow component reports results before markets open Tuesday.

Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 24 give Home Depot a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and eight of the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $346.80, the upside potential based on a median price target of $422.50 is 21.8%. At the high price target of $470, the upside potential is 35.5%.

Analysts expect Home Depot to report revenue of $34.83 billion for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter that ended in January. That’s down 5.4% sequentially but up 32.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $3.17, down by about 19% sequentially and up by 15.7% year over year. For the full fiscal year, EPS is forecast at $15.52, up 29%, on sales of $149.99 billion, up 13.5% year over year.

Home Depot stock trades at 22.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 21.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $16.18 and 20.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $17.30 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $246.59 to $420.61. Home Depot pays an annual dividend of $6.60 (yield of 1.90%). Total shareholder return for the past year is 25.5%.

Macy’s

Shares of Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) have added more than 69% over the past 12 months. That includes a drop of 32% since mid-November from a six-year high. Since the COVID-19 vaccines were announced in November of 2020, Macy’s stock price has jumped by 300%. The company reports results before markets open Tuesday.

Activist investors have targeted Macy’s and rival Kohl’s recently, seeking to separate the booming e-commerce business from the mother ship. Macy’s has managed so far to dodge a slate of nominees to its board, but the company has said it is reviewing its business structure.
Only four of 17 analysts rate Macy’s stock as a Buy, and none has a Strong Buy rating. Another eight rate the shares at Hold and five have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. At a share price of around $25.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $31.40 is 23.6%. Based on a high price target of $50, the potential upside on the shares is almost 97%.

Analysts are forecasting fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 revenue of $8.45 billion, which would be 55.3% higher sequentially and up about 24.6% year over year. Adjusted EPS are tabbed at $1.99, up 62% sequentially and 149% year over year. For the fiscal year ending in January, analysts are currently looking for EPS of $4.88, compared to last year’s loss of $2.21 per share, on sales of $24.23 billion, up nearly 40%.

Macy’s stock trades at 5.3 times expected 2022 EPS, 6.4 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.02 and 6.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $3.94 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $13.73 to $37.95. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.15 (yield of 2.32%). Total shareholder return for the past year is 83.2%.

Medtronic

Medical device maker Medtronic PLC (NYSE: MDT) has posted a share price decline of around 12% over the past 12 months. Between early September and late December, the stock price dropped by 26%. Prior-quarter results were dampened by lower demand for elective surgeries, and investors will be looking at that metric again for the company’s fiscal third quarter. Medtronic reports results before markets open on Tuesday.

Analysts are bullish on the stock, with 19 of 27 ratings at Buy or Strong Buy, and the other eight ratings are all Hold. At a share price of around $101.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $128 is 26.2%. At the high price target of $153, the upside potential is nearly 51%.

Analysts expect the company to report third-quarter revenue of $7.91 billion, up less than 1% sequentially and up 1.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.37, up 3.6% sequentially and about 6.0% year over year. Current estimates for fiscal 2022 call for EPS of $5.68, up 27.9%, on sales of $32.26 billion, up 7.1%.

Macy’s stock trades at 17.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 16.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.14 and 15.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.66 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $98.38 to $135.89. The company pays an annual dividend of $2.42 (yield of 2.48%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 10.2%.


Williams

Oil and gas pipeline operator Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) has seen its share price add about 38% over the past 12 months. The company’s Transco system, which delivers natural gas from the Gulf Coast region to customers on the Eastern Seaboard, is the nation’s largest-volume natural gas system. The issue for Williams, as with all major pipeline systems, is growth. It is getting ever more difficult to get new lines or significant upgrades approved. Williams reports quarterly results on Monday.

Analysts are bullish on the stock, with 17 of 24 giving the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating. The other seven rate the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $29.70, the upside potential based on a median price target of $32 is 7.7%. At the high price target of $36, the upside potential is 21.2%.

Analysts expect the company to report fourth-quarter revenue of $2.39 billion, down 3.4% sequentially but up 14.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.34, flat sequentially and about 9.7% higher  year over year. Current estimates for fiscal 2022 call for EPS of $1.26, up 14.7%, on sales of $9.97 billion, up 29.1%.

The stock trades at 23.5 times expected 2021 EPS, 22.6 times estimated 2022 earnings of $1.32 and 20.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.78 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $22.18 to $31.02. The company pays an annual dividend of $1.63 (yield of 5.73%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 42%.

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