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Earnings Previews: Ford, Starbucks, US Steel

Starbucks dark clouds
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In early trading Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrials traded down 0.41%, the S&P 500 was up 0.02% and the Nasdaq traded down 0.07%. The FOMC interest rate decision due in the afternoon was keeping trading enthusiasm in check.

After U.S. markets closed Tuesday, AMD beat analysts’ consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Net income fell by 98% year over year in the fourth quarter on higher costs and PC sales. Data center (server) revenue was up 42% year over year, and PC revenue tumbled 71%. First-quarter revenue guidance was in line with expectations, but PC and gaming revenue is expected to decline and growth in the server and embedded segments is expected to continue growing. Shares traded up 5.8% Wednesday morning.
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Snap beat the consensus earnings estimate but missed on revenue. First-quarter revenue is expected to be between 2% and 10% lower than in the year-ago quarter. Demand for advertising is neither better nor worse, but advertisers are cautious about making long-term commitments. The stock traded down 12.55% early Wednesday.

Before markets opened on Wednesday, Altria reported mixed results, beating the EPS estimate but missing on revenue. The Marlboro maker also announced a $1 billion share buyback. Shares traded up 4.7%.

Enterprise Products Partners reported better-than-expected EPS but missed on revenue, even though the energy infrastructure firm’s sales rose 20% year over year. Two noncash charges shaved $288 million off the company’s revenue. Shares traded up 0.2%.

Peloton also beat the consensus EPS estimate and missed on revenue. The company issued in-line guidance for the current quarter. The stock traded up 15.4%.

T-Mobile’s report was also mixed, beating the EPS estimate and falling short on revenue. The company added 314,000 new post-paid accounts to reach a record 1.4 million subscribers for the quarter. The company said it expects 5.0 million to 5.5 million postpaid additions in 2023. Shares traded up by 0.9%.

Meta Platforms is expected to report results after markets close Wednesday, and then Bristol-Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Merck and Sirius XM the following morning. Then look for mega-caps Alphabet, Amazon and Apple to take their turns in the earnings spotlight later on Thursday.

Here is a look at three more widely tracked companies also reporting results after Thursday’s close.

Ford

After a dazzling show from rival General Motors on Tuesday, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has a lot to prove. The big reveal will be guidance. GM issued EPS guidance above expectations, and the chief financial officer of its credit division said that demand is strong.

Ford recently lowered prices on its all-electric Mustang Mach-E, but can it make a profit on those lower selling prices? Ford has also said it plans to cut thousands of jobs in Europe, mainly in Germany and the United Kingdom. Some 3,800 workers in a plant that builds gasoline-powered vehicles will be cut. That is a big bet that Ford can make money on electric vehicles in Europe.

Analysts remain mixed on the stock, with nine of 22 brokerages having a Hold rating and 10 with a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a recent share price of around $13.50, the stock trades right at its median price target. At the high price target of $24.00, the upside potential is 77.8%.
Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $40.73 billion, which would be up 9.5% sequentially and by 15.5% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.62, up 106.3% sequentially and 138.4% higher year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.99, up 24.9%, on sales of $150.24 billion, up 19.1%.
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Ford stock trades at about 6.8 times expected 2022 EPS, 8.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.69 and 7.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.72 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $10.61 to $21.05. Ford pays an annual dividend of $0.60 (yield of 4.65%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 31.6%.

Starbucks

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) posted its 52-week high last week, reaching a gain of almost 58% since it dipped to a 52-week low in mid-May. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 11%. The company has joined only a few others that require employees to return to their offices. In Starbucks’ case, that means at least three days a week. A month ago, employees at 100 company stores began a strike to pressure Starbucks and CEO Howard Schultz to unionize the stores. Fewer than 300 of Starbucks’ 9,000 U.S. locations are currently unionized.

Analyst sentiment is cool on the stock, with 20 of 34 having a Hold rating and 14 with a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $109.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $111.00 is 1.8%. At the high price target of $136.00, the upside potential is 24.8%.

For the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2023, analysts expect revenue of $8.78 billion, up about 4.4% sequentially and by 9.0% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.77, down 5% sequentially and up 6.9% year over year. For the 2023 fiscal year ending in September, current estimates call for EPS of $3.44, 16.1%, on sales of $36.09 billion, up 11.9%.

Starbucks stock trades at 31.8 times expected 2023 EPS, 26.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $4.07 and 22.5 times estimated 2025 earnings of $4.85 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $68.39 to $109.73. Starbucks pays an annual dividend of $2.12 (yield of 1.94%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 13.64%.

U.S. Steel

Over the past 12 months, shares of United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) have added 37.5% to their value. More than all of the gain came in the past three months, and more than a third came in January. Steel prices have been climbing, if erratically, since November, adding about 20% to the price of steel rebar. Between May and November, steel prices fell by nearly a third, so the recent gains are certainly welcome. The big question, of course, is whether construction will pick up enough to keep raising demand for steel.

Of 11 brokerages covering the shares, only three have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another five rate the stock at Hold. At a price of around $28.50, the shares trade above the median price target of $24.00. At the high target of $37.00, the upside potential is 29.8%.


Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to come in at $4.01 billion, down 23.0% sequentially and 28.6% lower year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.63, down almost 68% sequentially and by 82.7% year over year. For the 2022 fiscal year, analysts expect U.S. Steel to post EPS of $9.47, down 29.7%, on sales of $20.78 billion, up 2.5%.

U.S. Steel stock trades at 3.0 times expected 2022 EPS, 11.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $2.39 and 15.4 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.85 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $16.41 to $39.25, and the company pays an annual dividend of $0.20 (yield of 0.69%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 38.73%.

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