Make Sure to Check Out the AI Investor Podcast for More NVIDIA Earnings News

NVIDIA reports earnings in 25 minutes, and the stock is up 2.73% to close out the day. Expectations couldn’t be higher as Wall Street is looking for Q3 revenue of $55.09B and EPS of $1.26, implying 57% and 55% year-over-year growth. NVIDIA notably excluded $2B–$5B of potential H20 China revenue from its guidance due to ongoing licensing uncertainty. Investors will be focused on the Blackwell ramp, with production now running at roughly 1,000 racks per week, and whether GB300 deployments are accelerating into year-end.

Options markets are pricing in a 6.9% post-earnings move, while prediction markets imply an 80%+ chance of an EPS beat. AI equities are rebounding into the print, with NVDA up about 2 percent pre-earnings.

Key questions for the call include updates on the $500B Blackwell/Rubin revenue visibility, the pace of networking growth, China licensing progress, and early signals for NVIDIA’s 2026 demand outlook as AI infrastructure spending continues to surge.

It’s been a brutal two weeks for AI stocks as investors have fled risk and sold off most AI stocks. Yet, with the Dow Jones down .31% as of 2:50 p.m. ET, many AI stocks are seeing strong rebounds today.

NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) is up 2.1%. Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO) shares are doing even better, up 3.6%.

Enthusiasm around Google’s new Gemini 3 model are likely the catalyst for Broadcom’s gains. The model was trained on TPUs that are designed by Broadcom.

Other AI stocks shining today include Celestica (NYSE: CLS), which is up 4% and Lumentum (Nasdaq: LITE), which is up 8%.

On the negative end, AMD (Nasdaq: AMD) is down 3.6% while Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) has dropped 2%.

If you’re just reading this blog, we expect NVIDIA to report earnings at 4:20 p.m. ET tonight and will continue posting updates.

Infrastructure stocks are also seeing strong gains, with Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) up 3.5%.

Implied volatility measures are pricing in a 6.9% move for NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) after earnings tonight. That’s slightly less than recent earnings, when movements of 8% or more have been priced in by options markets.

The most active options market today is short-term contracts expiring on November 21st. Volume for NVIDIA’s $200 calls expiring on that date have surpassed 110,000 contracts as of 2:30 p.m. ET.

If you look at options for $210 expiring on Friday, there have been about 48,000 contracts traded.

As we noted earlier in this live blog, prediction markets are placing heavy bets that NVIDIA will top expectations tonight. Polymarket prediction markets currently imply an 88% chance that NVIDIA will top earnings expectations of $1.25 per share tonight when the company reports. At 12:25, odds sank as low as 79%, but have been rising steadily since.

The bottom line: while the market has turned bearish on AI stocks, most traders are betting on NVIDIA topping expectations tomorrow. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean the stock will rise when the market opens tomorrow.

NVIDIA generally has beaten Wall Street expectations in recent years, so Wall Street is already expecting a beat. With the company projected to deliver either $1.25 or $1.26 in adjusted earnings accroding to most data providers, its likely NVIDIA will need to deliver $1.30 or more in EPS last quarter and issue solid guidance for shares to rise tomorrow when trading begins.

At NVIDIA‘s (Nasdaq: NVDA) GTC conference on October 28th, Jensen Huang surprised the investing world when he revealed the company had ‘visibility’ to more than $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of calendar 2026.

The moment the slide above appeared at GTC, NVIDIA’s shares began taking off. In total, NVIDIA would add about $400 billion to its market cap across the next two days.

The day NVIDIA released this slide, Wall Street had projections of $279 billion for revenue next quarter and throughout calendar 2026. Which is to say, if NVIDIA was now forecasting $500 billion in sales across that period, that would mean a series of historic earnings blowouts were in store.

In the days that followed, NVIDIA’s CFO met with Wall Street analysts and clarified that Huang’s $500 billion prediction wasn’t quite as bullish as investors first thought. She clarified:

• The $500 billion number is cumulative across both Blackwell and Rubin, meaning about 30% of the sales have already happened.
• The $500 billion number also includes networking.

Some quick math would show that even taking 30% out of the $500 billion number for Blackwell chips that have already sold, Huang is still forecasting $350 billion in sales by the end of calendar 2026, which is still significantly above Wall Street’s forecasts.

In recent weeks, NVIDIA has been in a ‘quiet period’ with the company’s most recent quarter finished. Tonight will be the first opportunity for Huang to provide more commentary on the $500 billion figure, so we expect Wall Street to ask for more details and clarifications.

If Huang provides more details that show Wall Street’s forecasts for the coming quarters are significantly below what NVIDIA expects, we’d expect plenty of analyst upgrades in the days ahead as analysts race to update their models. That would be a welcome relief to NVIDIA shareholders who have seen weeks of negative sentiment driven by fears the AI bubble is ‘bursting.’

Prediction market Polymarket has a market set up for NVIDIA’s (NVDA) quarterly results, and the current trading implies there’s an 82% chance the company will beat Wall Street earnings expectations.

Several of the largest technology companies this earnings season have entered reporting day with unusually high implied odds of topping consensus estimates. That hasn’t always translated into actual earnings beats, however. Meta, for example, missed its numbers earlier this season due to one-time charges, despite betting markets giving the company better than 90% odds of surpassing analyst expectations.

NVIDIA’s odds remain elevated heading into the print, reflecting strong investor confidence in continued AI-driven demand — but as recent earnings have shown, high probabilities don’t guarantee clean results once the numbers hit the wire.