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Stock Market Live December 16: S&P 500 (SPY) Down on Payroll Data

By Ian Cooper · Updated Dec 16, 1:21pm ET · Published Dec 16, 9:22am ET

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One of the Biggest Winners of the Holiday Season

One of the biggest winners of the day is Affirm Holdings (AFRM).

Up about 10%, or by $6.67 a share, it’s up on cash-strapped Americans, many of whom put more than $1 billion on buy now, pay later accounts during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

“Americans spent $1.03 billion on Cyber Monday alone using buy-now-pay-later services like Klarna (KLAR), Affirm (AFRM), and PayPal (PYPL) – an all-time high, according to new data from Adobe – and that figure is expected to go even higher,” according to Morningstar. “Over the course of the Nov. 1-Dec. 31 holiday shopping season, buy-now-pay-later is expected to facilitate $20.2 billion worth of payments, a year-over-year increase of 11%, per Adobe (ADBE).”

Last trading at $72 a share, we’d like to see AFRM retest $80 initially.

Markets are Taking a Dive – Here’s Why

Markets are still volatile, swinging in both directions.

This morning, for example, markets swung from being deep in the red to green back to red in the first half hour of trading. That’s because no one is quite sure what’s going to happen with interest rates moving forward — especially after the latest jobs data was reported.

Nonfarm payrolls grew more than expected in November, coming in at 64,000. That was better than the expectations of 45,000. The unemployment rate did jump to 4.6% as expected.

In addition, an October count showed that payrolls were down by 105,000, which was preceded by an increase of 108,000 in September.

With that, the odds of a rate cut in January show little chance of a cut.

Bank of America Just Reiterated a Buy on Nvidia

Analysts at Bank of America just reiterated a buy rating on Nvidia, calling the tech giant a top pick for 2026. Bernstein also initiated an outperform rating on NVDA, noting that if reports are accurate, NVDA can ship chips to some customers in China, which is a positive development.

Helping, NVDA is seeing substantial demand from China for it H200 chips.

At the moment, NVDA is considering expanding production of the chips with demand outpacing supply. Even better, President Trump said the administration will allow Nvidia to export the H200 AI processor to China, with a 25% fee on sales.

Last trading at $176.29, we’d like to see NVDA rally above $200 near term.

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The story so far

The major indices are down slightly with the latest payroll data for November.

At the moment, Dow futures are down 19. The S&P 500 is down about eight. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up fractionally, as the Nasdaq drops 47 points.

Nonfarm payrolls grew more than expected in November, coming in at 64,000. That was also better than the expectations of 45,000. The unemployment rate did jump to 4.6% as expected. In addition, an October count showed that payrolls were down by 105,000, which was preceded by an increase of 108,000 in September.

Average hourly earnings were up just 0.1% for November, below the estimate for 0.3%, and were up 3.5% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since May 2021.

Gold Just Passed $3,600 

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another quarter point, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson says unemployment is a bigger economic threat than inflation, which could open the door for more interest rate cuts in the new year.

“That’s partly because I see a decent chance that inflation will come down as we go through next year,” the central banker said, as quoted by CNBC.

Last trading at $4,306, some analysts are arguing for $5,000 gold in the new year.

Bank of America, for example, is targeting $5,000 by 2026. JPMorgan is targeting $5,055. HSBC analysts are targeting $5,000 by early 2026, too.

There’s also still time to go long copper. 

Copper prices could test higher highs on supply concerns.

For one, traders have been boosting copper shipments to the U.S. amid speculation the Trump Administration could impose new import tariffs in the new year, which could squeeze supply in other regions, as noted by The Wall Street Journal.

Two, we have to remember that demand for copper has been growing even faster, thanks to the artificial intelligence boom in data centers and renewable energy.

In addition, as noted by The Wall Street Journal, “Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of next year to an average of $10,710 a ton from $10,415 previously, citing constrained mine-supply growth and structural demand from grid and power infrastructure. It also said physical traders suggest copper shipments into the U.S. could accelerate more than expected in early 2026. Copper prices are also supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year.”

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Ian Cooper

Ian Cooper is a veteran market analyst and investment strategist with more than 20 years of experience covering stocks, commodities, and macro trends. Since 1999, he has helped investors identify market opportunities using a blend of technical analysis, fundamental research, and market sentiment.

He is the creator of the ADD News Flow Strategy, which focuses on trading market reactions to major news events and investor psychology. Cooper was also among the analysts who warned about the 2008 financial crisis and major financial institution collapses ahead of the broader market.

Before joining 247 Wall St., Cooper wrote extensively for InvestorPlace and other financial publications, covering market trends, trading strategies, and investment opportunities.

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