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Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings tonight after the bell. The stock has surged 258% over the past year, riding a powerful wave of precious metals momentum as silver recently broke through $80 and was added to the U.S. Critical Minerals list.
With shares trading at $23, investors are asking whether tonight’s results can justify the run.
What Wall Street Expects
The big numbers to wach tonight are:
- Consensus of $688.2 million in revenue
- $.35 in non-GAAP EPS
- $.48 in GAAP EPS
Last quarter, Coeur delivered $555 million in revenue (beating estimates) and $0.23 EPS (missing consensus estimates of $.25). CEO Mitchell Krebs guided for “another record quarter in the final three months of the year based on anticipated higher average realized prices and increasing margins.”
Production expectations center on continued sequential growth. Q3 delivered 111,364 ounces of gold and 4.8 million ounces of silver, with all five North American operations contributing. The company raised its full-year 2025 gold production midpoint and lowered cost guidance at several mines. Management projected full-year EBITDA exceeding $1 billion and free cash flow topping $550 million based on recent metals prices.
Last Quarter’s Delivery
Coeur crushed Q3 expectations with record net income of $266.8 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $299 million. The company more than doubled its cash position to $266.3 million while generating $189.7 million in free cash flow.
The stock’s initial reaction was choppy. Shares closed at $18.00 on the filing date of October 29, 2025, then dropped nearly 20% over the following week to $14.44. But the selloff proved temporary. Since the Q3 report, CDE has rallied 27.3% to current levels, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 1.2% gain over the same period.
What I’m Watching Tonight
Rochester mine ramp-up progress is the headline story. Management completed three major crusher modifications in July and improved particle size metrics to 0.84 inches in Q3 from 0.92 inches in Q2. But a conveyor belt issue in the secondary reclaim feeder caused late-quarter momentum loss.
COO Michael Routledge characterized these as “normal course adjustments during a ramp-up” rather than systemic problems. I’ll be listening for whether Q4 showed the sustained throughput needed to hit the annual 7-8 million ounces of silver and 70,000 ounces of gold run rate targeted for 2026.
Cost discipline matters more than ever at current metals prices. The company paid down over $228 million in debt during 2025 and expects to end the year with over $500 million in cash. But higher silver prices trigger royalty obligations. Management lowered cost guidance at Palmarejo, Kensington, and Wharf last quarter while absorbing Rochester royalty pressure. Whether that trend continued in Q4 will be a key data point in tonight’s report.
Valuation is the elephant in the room. Analysts recently boosted price targets, with RBC Capital raising its target from $22 to $26 in mid-February. The consensus target sits at $25.93, implying modest upside from current levels.
But the stock trades at 31x trailing earnings and 8.2x sales. The company just announced 4.4 million ounces of gold reserves and 274.4 million ounces of silver reserves, with Wharf mine life extended to roughly 12 years and projected EBITDA of $1.7 billion.
Tonight’s guidance will determine whether the 258% surge reflects fundamental strength or simply rode the silver wave.
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