Had You Invested $1,000 in Costco or Walmart 10 Years Ago, Here’s What You’d Have Today
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Retail giants Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST | COST Price Prediction) and Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) have taken very different paths over the past decade. Costco doubled down on its membership-driven warehouse model, turning Kirkland Signature into a private-label powerhouse and expanding internationally. Walmart reinvented itself, pivoting from a big-box stalwart into an omnichannel platform with a growing advertising business, AI-driven logistics, and Walmart+.
A Decade of Diverging Dominance
Costco’s edge has been consistency. Its membership renewal rate has held near 89.7%, and fee income has compounded quietly, growing 13.6% year-over-year in the most recent quarter. That recurring revenue acts like a subscription business layered on top of a retailer, giving investors predictable cash flow regardless of economic conditions.
Walmart’s transformation has been more dramatic. The company acquired VIZIO, built a nearly $6.40 billion global advertising business, and pushed e-commerce to 23% of Walmart U.S. total net sales. Global e-commerce grew 24% in Q4 FY2026, and the company raised its dividend to $0.99 per share for FY2027. This is no longer the same company it was in 2016.
Your $1,000 Then, Your Money Now
Costco
- 1-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $976.30 (−2.37%) | S&P 500 same period: $1,187.87 (+18.79%)
- 5-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $3,333.02 (+233.30)% | S&P 500 same period: $1,912.20 (+91.22%)
- 10-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $8,473.30 (+747.33%) | S&P 500 same period: $3,408.33 (+240.83%)
Walmart
- 1-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $1,297.10 (+29.71%) | S&P 500 same period: $1,187.87 (+18.79%)
- 5-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $3,066.50 (+206.65%) | S&P 500 same period: $1,912.20 (+91.22%)
- 10-Year Return: Initial $1,000 | Total Return: $6,537.50 (+553.75%) | S&P 500 same period: $3,408.33 (+240.83%)
Both stocks have delivered strong long-term performance, but Costco’s edge over a decade is notable. It also paid three special dividends, including $15.00 in 2024, $10.00 in 2020, and $7.00 in 2017, boosting total returns further for reinvesting shareholders. The past year flipped the script, with Walmart delivering strong gains while Costco pulled back from its highs.
The Long-Term Winner Is Costco, but Walmart Bears Watching
Costco’s bull case is straightforward: sticky members, rising fee income, and international expansion still have room to run. The 54x trailing P/E reflects a durable premium, but the bear case is valuation. A PEG ratio of 5.57 leaves almost no margin for error, and a single disappointing quarter could compress the multiple sharply.
For Walmart, the transformation story has more chapters left, with real advertising and e-commerce momentum. Its 47x trailing P/E is no longer cheap either, and the risk is execution: Walmart is juggling more moving parts than ever.
For a buy-and-hold investor, Costco’s 10-year track record makes the stronger case. But if Walmart continues closing the gap, the next decade may be a much tighter race.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
