Gold Faces Headwinds From Calmer Markets, Yet Newmont’s Record Cash Flow Tells Another Story

The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) is nursing a roughly 3% pullback this week as the safe-haven bid that powered bullion to record territory fades. Spot futures were changing hands near $4,716.80 Friday morning, with the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) tracking forces like a cooler geopolitical picture, firmer risk appetite, and a fresh cut to one big bank’s year-end target, nevertheless it maintains an 11.3% gain. The offset: Newmont (NYSE:NEM | NEM Price Prediction) delivered a blowout quarter that is lifting the miners even as metal prices slip.

Why the safe-haven trade is losing steam

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) closed Thursday at $431.04, down 2% on the week but still up nearly 42% over the past year. The unwind lines up with a calmer tape: the VIX sits near 19, down 28% from its late-March spike above 31, and the 10-year Treasury yield is holding around 4.3%, raising the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset.

U.S. pressure on Iran through a naval posture in the Strait of Hormuz, paired with an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension has reignited carry trades and equity risk appetite. Morgan Stanley trimmed its second-half 2026 gold target to $5,200 from $5,700, citing Turkey selling 52 tons, ETF outflows of 90 tons in March, and technical breakdowns driving an 8% retreat from the February peak.

Newmont’s record quarter cuts against the tape

Newmont’s first-quarter adjusted EPS came in at $2.90, topping consensus by $0.72, on revenue of $7.31 billion against a $6.53 billion estimate. Record quarterly free cash flow of $3.1 billion was driven by an average realized gold price of $4,900 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs that dropped 21% to $1,029 per ounce.

The board authorized a fresh $6.0 billion buyback and held the $0.26 quarterly dividend. Shares rose 2% Friday to about $113, and the stock has more than doubled in a year.

What it means for investors

Gold’s pullback looks like a positioning story with structural supports still intact. Structural support from central banks, currency debasement concerns, and two expected Fed cuts in September and December still underpin the trade, per Morgan Stanley. Newmont’s quarter shows the operating leverage at $4,900 gold is enormous, which explains why miners can firm up even on red days for bullion.

Watch the April 28-29 Fed minutes and the next CPI print. Those will decide whether this is a pause or a deeper reset.