Gold Caught Between Rock and Hard Place Despite Safe-Haven Status
The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (NASDAQ:XAU) price is retreating Thursday morning as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields dampen safe-haven demand, even as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. The ^XAU is hovering near $4,738 per…
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The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (NASDAQ:XAU) price is retreating Thursday morning as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields dampen safe-haven demand, even as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. The ^XAU is hovering near $4,738 per ounce, pulling back from recent highs as the greenback, which hit a two-week high overnight, reasserts its own safe-haven dominance. Ironically, the very conflict driving investors toward protection is also reinforcing dollar strength, capping Gold’s (^XAU) upside. Silver is feeling the pressure more acutely, sliding roughly 2% to around $76 per ounce. With Brent above $100 and peace talks stalled, the metals complex remains caught between competing safe-haven narratives.
What’s driving precious metals?
Three forces are pulling on gold at once. Spot bullion held above the $4,700 level after a pullback from recent record highs, with traders citing Fed rate-path uncertainty and a firmer dollar as near-term headwinds. Against that, lingering geopolitical risk and a VIX near 20, sitting at the 70th percentile of its 12-month range, continue to push long-only allocators toward bullion and miners as portfolio insurance.
The sector-specific news cuts both ways. Ghana’s Minerals Commission has given Newmont (NYSE: NEM), AngloGold Ashanti and Chinese-owned Zijin until December 2026 to shift mining operations to local contractors or face sanctions, according to Reuters sources. Newmont and Zijin currently run the mines with their own staff, while AngloGold already uses a joint-venture contractor at its smaller Iduapriem mine. That is a cost and execution risk for the two largest Western names in the index.
Miners investors are watching
Newmont (NYSE:NEM | NEM Price Prediction), the world’s largest gold producer, closed yesterday at $112, up 2%, and is up 108% over the past year. The company is poised to report Q1 2026 earnings results today after the closing bell. Analysts carry a $140 price target and a forward P/E near 13. NEM shares are lower this morning but have gained 10.1% YTD.
AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) has been the higher-beta play, up 140% over the past year even after a 5% pullback this past week. The Ghana directive is a real overhang at Iduapriem, but the core Sukari, Obuasi and Nevada growth pipeline is unchanged.
What to watch next
The XAU tends to amplify gold’s moves in both directions, and today’s rebound says long-term holders are using the pullback to add exposure. Across the risk aisle, Bitcoin sits at about $78,000, up 4% on the week after Trump’s Iran cease-fire extension, a reminder that safe-haven flows are splitting between bullion and digital assets. Watch the dollar and any fresh Iran headlines into the close.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
