Carvana Price Target Adjusted to $93 by Barclays as Retail Volumes Stay Solid Post Split

Barclays analyst John Babcock adjusted his price target on Carvana (NYSE:CVNA | CVNA Price Prediction) to $93 from $475 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The dramatic-looking cut is mechanical, reflecting the company’s recently completed 5-for-1 forward stock split while the firm’s fundamental view remains intact.

Babcock cited continued solid retail volume growth, even as the pace moderates below the torrid run rate of recent quarters. For long-term investors, Barclays’ enterprise value perspective on Carvana stock is essentially unchanged.

The Analyst’s Case

Babcock’s thesis hinges on Carvana’s ability to keep compounding retail unit volumes. The firm noted that growth is running below the 40% pace achieved in each of the last six quarters, yet it remains healthy by any normal industry standard.

That deceleration reflects tougher year-over-year comparisons rather than weakening demand. Carvana posted record Q4 2025 retail units of 163,522, up 43% year over year (YoY), and Q1 2026 revenue of $6.4 billion versus $4.2 billion a year earlier.

Company Snapshot

Carvana operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles, differentiated by integrated logistics, proprietary inspection workflows, and its ADESA reconditioning footprint. The company crossed $20 billion in annual revenue for the first time in 2025 and joined the S&P 500.

Full-year 2025 results showed revenue of $20.32 billion, up 49%, with EPS of $8.45. Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia reiterated a long-term target of 3 million annual retail units at a 14% Adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030 to 2035.

Why the Move Matters Now

When a company splits its stock, share counts rise and per-share metrics, including analyst targets, adjust proportionally. The underlying enterprise value Barclays ascribes to Carvana stock is unchanged by the revision to $93.

Context matters for the valuation: Carvana trades at a P/E ratio of 44x with a beta of 3.55, and the consensus analyst target sits at $93.01. Shares closed at $69.90 on May 13, down 17% year to date (YTD).

What It Means for Your Portfolio

The bull case for Carvana rests on durable volume growth, expanding per-unit economics, and an integrated digital platform with significant runway in a fragmented used-car market. The bear case includes $4.83 billion in long-term debt, consumer credit cycle exposure, and a history of execution stumbles that produced extreme drawdowns.

Prudent investors should treat the Barclays price target raise framework as a maintained vote of confidence rather than a fresh catalyst. The optical reset to $93 simply mirrors the split, while the Overweight rating signals Barclays still sees Carvana stock as an above-market opportunity.

Keep an eye on the stock as Carvana works through its 2026 outlook, particularly the planned 6 to 8 ADESA integrations and whether retail unit growth stabilizes above industry norms. Position sizing remains the key risk control given the stock’s well-documented volatility.