The Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global oil flows in ways that would have seemed unusual just months ago. One of the clearest examples is that the US is now shipping crude to Australia, a market that typically relies far more heavily on Asia and the Middle East for supply.
The idea came up during a recent Morning Brew Daily podcast episode, where hosts discussed how global energy markets are rerouting in real time as the conflict disrupts normal trade patterns. Australia remains heavily dependent on imported fuel and crude, while the US has emerged as one of the few large-scale producers with enough export flexibility to help fill supply gaps across the Asia-Pacific region.
The Macro Backdrop: $100 Oil and A Refinery Ceiling
WTI has spiked from the mid-$60s in late February to $114.58 on April 7, 2026, hovering near $95 as of May 8 as markets price in supply risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz. US refineries are also already operating near practical capacity limits. Pulling barrels off international markets would not suddenly create more gasoline domestically because refining infrastructure, not just crude availability, remains the bottleneck.
The Trump administration, under pressure over gas prices at the pump, has refused to choke off fuel exports, saying it wants “the free market to behave as the free market does”. The hosts walked through the logic: “the price of oil is set globally” via benchmarks like Brent, so withholding US barrels “might cause prices to rise elsewhere,” which would feed into US gasoline prices. They described “oil markets operating very efficiently” with US supply plugging the Hormuz gap, and noted the only durable fix: “you got to open the Strait in order for everything to equalize.”
The Corporate Winners: BP, Shell, TotalEnergies
New BP (NYSE:BP | BP Price Prediction) CEO Meg O’Neill framed the environment in the company’s first quarter results. “It’s a privilege and an honor to serve as BP’s CEO. I join at a time when our industry is operating in an environment of conflict and complexity, playing a vital role in keeping energy flowing,” she said in BP’s Q1 2026 results. BP delivered EPS of $1.24 against a $0.9306 estimate, with shares up 64.88% over the past year.
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Shell (NYSE:SHEL) saw Q1 adjusted profit rise 24% to nearly $7 billion, more than twice the prior quarter, even as its Pearl GTL facility in Qatar was damaged by the March 18 attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City, with full repair expected to take roughly a year.
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TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) carries the heaviest direct exposure, with approximately 15% of total production shut across Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE as of end-April 2026, with facilities requiring 2 to 3 months to restart. Adjusted net income climbed 41% quarter-over-quarter to $5.39 billion, and European refining margins nearly tripled year-over-year to $11.40 per barrel.
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The Political Threshold
The biggest variable now may not be supply disruptions themselves, but how much pain consumers tolerate at the pump. The Morning Brew Daily hosts suggested the real political pressure point begins if national gasoline prices move sustainably above $5 to $7 per gallon. At that point, pressure could build for Washington to intervene more aggressively in export markets.
Until then, integrated oil majors remain positioned to benefit from elevated crude prices, stronger refining spreads, and a global market increasingly dependent on flexible US exports to stabilize disrupted trade flows.
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