Shares of HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ:HIVE) are up 34% in mid-morning trading Monday, while T1 Energy (NYSE:TE) shares have climbed 20%. The catalyst: a wave of social media buzz around a 13-F disclosure from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP.
HIVE stock traded near $3.60 after closing Friday near $2.73. TE stock pushed to $6.76, from a Friday close of around $5.60.
Yet, some of the names Aschenbrenner verifiably increased in his Q1 2026 filing are sitting this rally out. That gap is the real story for HIVE and T1 Energy traders.
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Who Is Aschenbrenner and Why Traders Care
Aschenbrenner is a German investor and former OpenAI Superalignment researcher who departed the company in 2024. He’s best known for the widely circulated 2024 essay Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, which argued for aggressive artificial general intelligence (AGI) timelines and the geopolitical stakes of the buildout.
He founded Situational Awareness LP in 2024 to invest behind the AI-buildout thesis. Per QuiverQuant analyst Matthew Kerr’s writeup, the fund holds roughly $3.85 billion across 34 positions as of the March 31 reporting period.
What the 13-F Actually Shows
The headline move from Aschenbrenner’s fund is a pivot to massive downside hedges on AI chips. Per Kerr’s writeup, Aschenbrenner’s fund increased its equity stakes in CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK | CLSK Price Prediction), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), among others. These are the verified beneficiaries of the filing per Kerr.
The Divergence Tells the Story
Here’s the rub: HIVE and T1 Energy were flagged in a separate QuiverQuant X post, not the analyst writeup. HIVE fits a Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC)-miner-pivoting-to-AI parallel with Aschenbrenner’s verified picks, and TE fits a powering-AI-data-centers thesis. Neither, however, is explicitly named in the confirmed buys.
Meanwhile, the verified longs are quiet. CleanSpark stock is trading near $13.08, barely changed from a $13.03 Friday close. Riot shares are near $22.98 (down 2%), Applied Digital stock sits at around $39.20 (down 8%), and CoreWeave stock has slid to $101.24 from $107.33.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) isn’t helping the bull case, either. BTC closed at $77,111, down from $81,079 on May 14. The miner rally isn’t a function of underlying crypto strength.
The Skeptical View
HIVE’s Q3 FY2026 revenue jumped 219% year over year (YoY) to $93.1M. T1 Energy posted Q1 2026 revenue of $177.65M, beating estimates by 61%. Neither story is unfounded.
Note, however, that HIVE shares carry a beta of 3.44 and TE shares a beta of 1.78. Volatility cuts both ways.
The fact that Aschenbrenner’s verified longs in CleanSpark, Riot, Applied Digital, and CoreWeave are sluggish today suggests that institutional money might not be chasing the broader pair trade. Position sizing and stops matter here, and prudent investors should adjust their strategies accordingly.
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What to Watch
Watch for whether HIVE holds above the $3.35 level into the close, and whether sell-side analysts pick up the pair-trade angle later this week. A close near the morning’s highs could lend the move credibility.
Traders should also keep an eye on whether the aforementioned verified longs play catch-up. If they stay quiet by end of session, today’s HIVE and TE surge looks more like an anomaly than a thesis trade.
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