Trump Promised to Refill America’s Emergency Oil Reserve. Instead, It Just Saw Its Largest Weekly Drain in History.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve posted back-to-back record drawdowns in mid-May, with 9.92 million barrels released in the week ending May 15 and 8.6 million the week before. Those twin releases brought the stockpile to 365.1 million barrels as of May 22, roughly half the reserve’s December 2009 peak of 726.6 million barrels.

RECORD: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve just fell by its largest ever weekly amount: almost 10 million barrels. Total SPR now at under 375 million barrels.

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 18, 2026

President Trump ran on a pledge to refill the reserve after Biden-era sales drained more than 200 million barrels in 2022 and 2023. Five months into his second term, the SPR is moving in the opposite direction at a historic pace.

Why the Reserve Is Shrinking Again

West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $101.56 per barrel on May 11, down from an April 7 spike to $114.58 during the acute phase of the Iran conflict. That conflict choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sent global crude prices soaring from the $70 range a year earlier. As of early June, WTI is trading near $95 per barrel, still elevated but off the spring peak.

When oil trades above $100, the government faces a choice: buy barrels at elevated prices and lock in losses relative to the $75 average sale price from Biden-era releases, or let some of the reserve out to ease domestic supply pressure and support allies. This spring, the administration chose the second path, coordinating a 172-million-barrel U.S. release as part of a 400-million-barrel International Energy Agency drawdown.

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) tells the story in ETF form. The fund gained roughly 87% year to date through June 1, tracking crude’s surge from the low $60s in early January to triple digits by mid-spring. When oil prices spike this hard, the reserve becomes a relief valve, not a refill target.

What 365 Million Barrels Actually Means

Congress authorized the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the 1973 OPEC oil embargo exposed the economy’s vulnerability to foreign supply shocks. The reserve consists of underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast that can release crude within days of a presidential order. The SPR hit its all-time high of 726.6 million barrels on December 27, 2009. At 365.1 million barrels today, the reserve sits at roughly half that capacity.

The reserve exists to buffer the economy when a hurricane shuts Gulf refineries, a shipping lane closes, or a sanctions regime cuts off a major supplier. At current levels, the next disruption lands directly on consumers before Washington has enough cushion to smooth the shock. Gasoline and heating oil costs feed straight into household budgets, and those budgets are already stretched.

Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026, revised down from a preliminary estimate of 48.2. The University of Michigan survey showed 57% of respondents spontaneously cited high prices as eroding personal finances, up from 50% the prior month. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers climbed to 333.02 in April, a 0.9% monthly jump and the highest annual pace (3.8%) since May 2023. Energy prices rose 3.8% in April alone, with gasoline up 5.4%, accounting for over 40% of the headline CPI increase.

The Gap Between Promise and Plumbing

The political bind is simple. Trump campaigned on refilling the reserve “right to the top.” The Energy Department sold SPR barrels near $75 during 2022 and 2023. Buying aggressively at $100 means booking public losses on every barrel, a narrative no administration wants to defend. So the department waits for prices to fall. While it waits, allies request supply, refiners negotiate swaps, and the stockpile continues to drain.

The next signal to watch is the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. If weekly draws persist anywhere near the 9 to 10 million barrel pace seen in mid-May, the SPR will drop below 350 million barrels within weeks, approaching levels not seen since the early fill phase in the 1980s. At that point, the reserve’s ability to function as a genuine emergency buffer narrows substantially.

Natural gas markets offer a parallel concern. Henry Hub prices spiked to $13.80 per million BTU in late January before collapsing back to the $2.70 range by spring. As of early June, prices have stabilized near $3.20 per million BTU, but the volatility underscores a broader energy system under stress. A second shock, whether from Middle East escalation or domestic infrastructure failure, would hit an economy with a depleted oil reserve and limited slack in natural gas storage.

The administration’s Iran policy will determine whether crude prices moderate enough to allow refill purchases later this year. Until then, the SPR continues to serve as a release mechanism, not a strategic stockpile.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated with the most recent SPR inventory level of 365.1 million barrels (week ending May 22, 2026), final May consumer sentiment data showing a record low of 44.8, and current crude oil and natural gas prices as of early June 2026.