Trump Promised to Refill America’s Emergency Oil Reserve. Instead, It Just Saw Its Largest Weekly Drain in History.

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By Joel South Published

Quick Read

  • The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (USO) burned through roughly 10 million barrels in a single week, its largest drawdown on record, leaving stockpiles under 375 million.

  • The reserve is shrinking because crude prices climbed to $101-plus per barrel, making government purchases expensive and emergency releases the cheaper option.

  • United States Oil Fund (USO) has surged 121% year to date as West Texas Intermediate crude spiked from the $70s to over $114 a barrel during the Iran conflict.

  • At today’s depleted level, the next supply shock—a tanker war, refinery shutdown, or sanctions on Russian oil—hits consumer gas prices before Washington has time to respond.

  • Trump campaigned on refilling the reserve to the top, but buying aggressively at $100 oil forces the government to take public losses on barrels sold near $75 during Biden’s era.

  • The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

Trump Promised to Refill America’s Emergency Oil Reserve. Instead, It Just Saw Its Largest Weekly Drain in History.

© 24/7 Wall St // Sean Gallup / Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve just posted what may be its largest single-week drawdown on record. Roughly 10 million barrels came out of the SPR in one week, leaving the total stockpile under 375 million barrels

That number lands awkwardly. President Trump campaigned on refilling the reserve after the heavy Biden-era sales of 2022 and 2023. Five months into his second term, the tank is moving the other way, and fast.

Why the Reserve Is Shrinking Again

West Texas Intermediate closed at $101.56 a barrel on May 11, after spiking to $114.58 on April 7, the acute phase of the Iran conflict that has rattled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A year ago, WTI was trading in the high $50s to mid $70s.

The oil ETF tells the same story in plain English. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) is up roughly 32% in the past month and 121% year to date. When crude is this elevated, the government has two choices: pay top dollar to buy barrels for the reserve, or quietly let some out the back door to soften domestic prices and shore up allies. This week, it chose the second.

What 375 Million Barrels Actually Means

The SPR was built after the 1973-74 OPEC oil embargo, when gas lines stretched around the block and the country learned how exposed it was to foreign supply shocks. The reserve is salt caverns along the Gulf Coast holding crude that can be released in an emergency. It peaked near 727 million barrels in 2009-2010. Today’s level is roughly half of that.

For a household, the abstraction translates pretty directly. The reserve exists so that if a tanker war closes a shipping lane, or a hurricane shuts down Gulf refineries, or a sanctions regime knocks Russian or Iranian barrels offline, Washington has a buffer before pump prices spiral. With the buffer this thin, the next shock hits the consumer first.

And consumers are already squeezed. The Consumer Price Index climbed to 332.4 in April, a 1% monthly jump and the highest reading in the 12-month series. University of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 53.3, in pessimistic territory and down from 61.7 last July. Higher gasoline and heating costs feed straight into both.

The Gap Between Promise and Plumbing

The political problem is straightforward. Trump told voters the reserve would be rebuilt “right to the top.” The Energy Department cannot buy aggressively at $100 oil without taking a public loss on barrels it sold near $75. So it waits. And while it waits, allies ask for relief, refiners ask for swaps, and the stockpile bleeds.

What to watch: the next two EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports. If draws continue at anything close to this pace, the SPR drops below the symbolic 365 million barrel mark within a month. The other signal is Henry Hub. Natural gas spiked to $13.80 per million BTU in late January before collapsing back to the $2.70s. A second energy shock with the SPR this depleted is the scenario nobody in the administration wants to explain on television.

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About the Author Joel South →

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

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