Shares of Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL | DELL Price Prediction) are up 15% in late morning trading on Friday, leading a broad rally across AI server names. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) is climbing 9%, while Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) is trailing the group with a 5% gain.
Dell shares opened from a Thursday close near $252.80 and pushed to $290.55 intraday. A 15% single-day move is unusual for a name with a ~$94 billion market cap and signals real positioning conviction, not just sympathy buying.
The move comes one week before Dell reports fiscal Q1 2027 results.
Beat-and-Raise Setup Drives Dell Higher
Dell is scheduled to report its fiscal Q1 FY27 earnings on May 28. Bank of America published a preview earlier this week expecting a beat on both revenue and EPS, along with a raise to FY27 guidance. The prediction markets agree, with Polymarket pricing in a 94% probability that Dell beats its $2.95 non-GAAP EPS consensus.
The setup builds on Dell’s blowout Q4 FY26 print that delivered revenue of $33.38 billion, AI-optimized server revenue of $8.95 billion (up 342% year over year (YoY)), and a record $43 billion AI backlog entering FY27. Management has guided full-year FY27 revenue to $138 billion to $142 billion, with AI-optimized servers projected near $50 billion. Retail sentiment on Reddit had already turned very bullish heading into the week, suggesting the move validated existing positioning.
HPE Rides the Same Capex Wave
HPE is participating in the rally on similar AI capex logic, but without a near-term earnings catalyst of its own. The ProLiant AI server lineup and Cray-branded HPC systems give the company genuine hyperscaler exposure, and the Juniper Networks acquisition added networking optionality that has already started paying off.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s most recent Q1 FY26 results showed revenue of $9.30 billion (up 18% YoY), with Networking revenue of $2.71 billion, up 152% YoY. CEO Antonio Neri stated, “HPE delivered a strong first quarter, outperforming in our networking business and posting one of our most profitable quarters on record.” Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s management raised FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $2.30 to $2.50. The forward P/E ratio sits at 14x.
Super Micro Lags as Trust Rebuild Continues
Super Micro Computer is the smallest mover in the trio today. The franchise has spent the past year working through company-specific governance items, including an independent board review of export-control matters. Some hyperscaler customers appear to have migrated share toward Dell during this period, which partially explains why a basket-wide AI server rally isn’t lifting SMCI stock as forcefully.
Super Micro Computer’s Q3 FY26 results were a split verdict: non-GAAP EPS of $0.84 beat the $0.62 estimate by 35%, but revenue of $10.24 billion missed the $12.45 billion consensus by 18%. The bright spot was GAAP gross margin recovering to 10% from 6% sequentially. Reddit sentiment remained bullish across the week with scores ranging from 73 to 82.
Dispersion Tells the Real Story
| Ticker | Today | 1M | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | +15% | +19% | +102% | +129% | +457% |
| HPE | +9% | +18% | +42% | +98% | +142% |
| SMCI | +5% | +18% | +14% | -20% | +881% |
The dispersion reveals the market’s current view of the AI server share war. Dell is preferred, HPE is acceptable, and SMCI remains in the penalty box. The five-year +881% return for SMCI stock reminds investors that today’s laggard was once the most explosive winner in the basket.
The bull case is straightforward. Hyperscaler AI capex remains strong, Dell’s expected beat-and-raise could validate the buildout cycle, and operating leverage on AI server mix is finally translating into earnings. The bear case is equally clear. The AI server trade has run hard, and a soft May 28 print or cautious hyperscaler commentary could unwind much of today’s move quickly.
The next anticipated catalyst is Dell’s May 28 earnings release. Investors should watch for the AI backlog figure, FY27 guidance commentary, and any color on PowerEdge XE order linearity from hyperscale and neocloud customers. HPE and SMCI sympathy moves will likely follow.
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