XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) dropped to $1.08 on Friday—its lowest price in 19 months. The last time the cryptocurrency traded this low was November 2024, when it briefly crashed all the way to $0.50. The XRP price now looks to be stabilizing around $1.12 to $1.16.
XRP’s chances of a sustained recovery depend on institutional buyers, the CLARITY Act, and Bitcoin. If those three line up, XRP could push higher, but if they don’t, $1 might be the next test.
How XRP Hit Its 19-Month Low
The trigger was Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report. The 172,000 new jobs raised fears that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer, and the crypto market sold off across the board. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) plunged below $60,000, hitting a weekend low of $59,100. Over $1 billion in leveraged long positions were wiped out in 24 hours, and XRP got dragged down with the rest of the market and bottomed at $1.08.
That puts XRP down about 48% over the past year, and roughly 69% from its July 2025 cycle high of $3.65. With a market cap around $70 billion, it’s still the sixth-largest cryptocurrency. XRP is now up about 7% from Friday’s low, but the broader trend hasn’t turned yet.
There’s also something interesting in the way XRP fell. Across the downturns this year, XRP has dropped 1.3 to 1.6 times more than Bitcoin. This time, it only fell about 0.87 times Bitcoin’s drop, so XRP held up better than the usual routine would predict. That doesn’t mean a recovery is guaranteed, but it reflects that the XRP held higher than feared this round, and where the price goes from here is the next question.
What Could Push XRP Higher From Here?
The biggest thing working for XRP right now is institutional buying. While Bitcoin ETFs lost $4.4 billion over 13 trading days and Ethereum ETFs lost $401 million over 17 days, spot XRP ETFs pulled in a record $131.94 million in May, which was the strongest month this year. There was another $4.13 million in inflows in early June even as the price kept falling, taking cumulative inflows to $1.43 billion.
Moreover, more than 25 million XRP moved off exchanges in recent days. The number of wallets holding 10,000 XRP or more hit a record 332,230, and long-term holders added 22% to their positions between May 31 and June 2.
Beyond the institutional buying, the CLARITY Act could reprice XRP on its own. The bill, which would permanently classify XRP as a commodity under federal law, cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. If the bill passes, Standard Chartered projects it could trigger $4 to $8 billion in XRP ETF inflows by year-end, which is roughly 30 to 60 times the May record month.
XRP has also led the bounce in both of this year’s recoveries. In the first week of January, XRP rallied 24-25% while Bitcoin gained 5.5-6% and Ethereum 9.7-10%. After the February crash too, XRP surged 38% while Bitcoin recovered just 14% and Ethereum 12%. When buyers come back into crypto, XRP tends to lead the bounce amongst major cryptos.
What Could Stop a Bounce From Happening?
There are pressures that could stop a bounce from happening. Binance’s 30-day liquidity index for XRP has dropped to around 0.043, which is its lowest reading since January 2020. For context, that same index was between 3 and 4 during 2022-2024, so today’s reading is roughly 1% of normal. Thin liquidity means even small selling pressure can move XRP’s price more than usual.
On top of that, Ripple’s June 1 monthly escrow unlock added 200 to 400 million XRP in net new supply to a market that was already falling. Short positions on XRP also outweigh long positions by nine to one, which would amplify the move whichever way Bitcoin breaks next.
The bigger problem is that XRP can’t sustain a recovery without Bitcoin turning first. BTC ETFs only just broke their own 13-day outflow streak on June 4 with a tiny $3 million inflow after $4.4 billion in earlier outflows. One green day after thirteen red ones is not a reversal yet.
Polymarket currently prices a 64% chance Bitcoin tests $55,000 before year-end, and a 51% chance it tests $50,000. So, if Bitcoin drops to $55K, even XRP’s recent 0.87 ratio puts the price near $1.05. And if things take a worse turn and BTC tests $50K, XRP would plunge below $1.
If XRP loses the $1 support on a daily close, the next support level is $0.95. Below that, the $0.75 to $0.85 zone is where it bottomed in past cycles. If the selling intensifies, XRP could fall toward $0.50 to $0.60, which is where it traded back in November 2024.
How Far Could a Bounce Actually Go?
XRP can bounce back from its current range, but how far that bounce goes is the bigger question. A short-term move to $1.20 to $1.30 is possible if institutional buyers hold the line and Bitcoin doesn’t break lower. Anything above $1.50 would need Bitcoin to stabilize and the CLARITY Act to get scheduled for a floor vote before the August recess.
If both of those happen, XRP could plausibly retrace to the $1.50-$1.60 range in the short term, with $2 or higher possible only if institutional inflows accelerate from here. So a bounce is possible from here, but a recovery toward $2 or higher depends more on Bitcoin and the Senate than on XRP itself.
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