XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has dipped below $1.20 for the first time in over a year, and the token trades around $1.12 today after losing more than 10% in a week amid a market-wide selloff.
The drop comes despite a year in which XRP got nearly everything holders had been waiting for: spot ETFs, a settled SEC case, and commodity status from U.S. regulators. But the XRP price has been declining anyway, and war headlines now move it more than anything else. So is it still safe to hold XRP? Let’s find out.
What’s Driving the XRP Price Down Right Now
Most of the current selloff isn’t about XRP. The whole crypto market has been falling since U.S. strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in late May broke a ceasefire that had held since April. The two sides have traded fire all week: the U.S. hit Iranian air defenses after Iran shot down an American helicopter near the strait, and Iran fired missiles at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan in response.
The fighting knocked Bitcoin to around $61,000 before a shaky Thursday bounce toward $63,000. At the worst of it, $1.76 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated in a single day. And with oil climbing on the strikes, futures markets now put the odds of zero Fed rate cuts this year at 68.8%, which keeps the pressure on risk assets like crypto.
Money has been leaving crypto funds in general too. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ran a record 13-day outflow streak that drained $4.4 billion, and crypto investment products overall lost $1.67 billion in a single week, the second-largest weekly withdrawal of 2026. When the biggest asset in the market bleeds like that, altcoins follow, whatever their own fundamentals say.
XRP also has supply pressure on top of the market’s problems. Ripple ran its monthly escrow unlock on June 1, releasing another 1 billion XRP from the company’s locked reserves, with a few hundred million of that typically reaching circulation. And on-chain data shows long-term holders have kept selling whenever the price recovers, which is part of why the token fell through $1.25 early this month, and that level has been blocking every bounce since.
Why XRP’s Risk of Collapsing Is Lower Than It Looks
The threats that could have genuinely killed XRP are mostly gone. The SEC lawsuit that hung over the token for five years ended in a settlement in August 2025, and the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity in March. Whatever the price does, the scenario where XRP gets regulated out of U.S. markets is mostly off the table.
The regulated products around the token keep growing too. Five U.S. spot XRP ETFs manage close to $1 billion in assets. The funds logged a couple of outflow days in early June as the slide deepened, breaking a five-week clean streak. However, they returned to inflows with $7.44 million on June 9, holding up better than Bitcoin funds, which are barely breaking even after their record outflow run.
The same day, CME Group and Nasdaq launched a futures product that tracks a basket of major cryptos, with XRP making up 5.80% of the index—one more regulated route for institutions to hold XRP exposure.
Regular holders aren’t running for the exits either. Even with some long-term holders selling the bounces, overall XRP balances on exchanges have been falling since mid-2025 as people move tokens into cold storage—the opposite of what holders do when they’re getting ready to sell.
None of this guarantees the XRP price stops falling, but an asset with settled legal status, a growing set of regulated products, and holders pulling coins off exchanges doesn’t behave like one heading to zero.
How Much Lower the XRP Price Could Go?
XRP trades below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and the next level that matters is $1.00—close enough that a normal weekly swing could test it.
XRP’s weekly RSI, which measures how overheated or oversold a move is, hit 23.45 on June 5, among the lowest readings of this cycle. But oversold hasn’t been a reliable buy signal this year: the weekly RSI has spent most of 2026 below 35 without stopping the downtrend. The token has also stopped reacting to good news: the CME launch and steady ETF inflows did nothing for the XRP price, which is behavior you usually see late in a downtrend, when traders have stopped listening to the news.
The bigger risk to XRP’s recovery case is a new U.S. crypto regulation. The CLARITY Act, the bill that would lock XRP’s commodity status into federal law, reached the Senate calendar on June 1, but leadership hasn’t scheduled the floor vote and the bill needs 60 votes to pass.
JPMorgan puts the odds of passage below 50%, warning the window to get it done this year is narrowing as the midterms approach. Polymarket odds of passage in 2026 have slipped to around 50%, and Galaxy Digital’s research head cut his own estimate by 15 points for the same reason. So, much of the institutional money the bull case leans on has been waiting for exactly that bill.
What XRP Holders Should Be Watching
The CLARITY Act’s floor date matters more than anything else right now for XRP. More than 200 crypto companies and organizations sent a letter to Senate leadership on June 7 urging them to schedule the vote, and the response will say a lot. An announced date would likely move the price on its own. If June ends with no vote scheduled, the bill drifts toward the August recess and the shrinking window JPMorgan warned about. Congress.gov shows the status the moment it changes.
Then there’s the $1.00 level, and how the price behaves there matters more than whether it touches it. A quick dip below $1.00 that buyers snap back up fast would suggest the sellers are running out, while daily closes below $1.00 would put XRP in territory it hasn’t traded since 2024 and likely force another round of liquidations.
Weekly ETF flows are the clearest signal of whether big money still wants XRP. XRP funds have stayed net positive through a stretch when the majors mostly lost money, and that’s been the one bright spot of the past month. If that flips into a sustained outflow run, the steadiest source of new demand XRP has had this year would be in question. SoSoValue publishes the daily numbers.
Beyond crypto, the Fed meets June 16–17 with markets expecting no cuts this year, so anything softer than that would likely lift the whole market, XRP included. And the Iran situation remains the wildcard that started this leg down. De-escalation headlines could do more for the price in a day than any Ripple announcement.
The last date on the calendar is Ripple’s next escrow unlock on July 1. The company historically re-locks most of each monthly release, so the number to check is how much goes back into escrow that day. In a market this weak, a smaller re-lock means more supply hitting already-thin demand.
The Verdict on Holding XRP Right Now
The risk of XRP collapsing outright is probably lower than it has ever been: the legal threat is settled, U.S. regulators treat it as a commodity, and regulated products from ETFs to CME futures now hold and track it.
However, the risk of a deeper fall is on, with the XRP price below every major moving average and $1.00 within reach. XRP’s recovery chances haven’t broken, but it now has a clock on it. The CLARITY Act still has no scheduled vote, and Senator Lummis has warned that failure before the August recess could push the next window for crypto legislation to 2030.
If the XRP price closes below $1.00 with the bill still parked, that would mean the market expects another year of limbo. A CLARITY date and steady ETF inflows, on the other hand, would signal that the waiting is paying off.
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