Ford (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) has done everything right recently. It abandoned its expensive EV plans, which will save billions of dollars a year. It has launched “Ford Energy,” which Wall St. loves. This operation manufactures lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) batteries for stationary energy storage. The plan is based in part on a partnership with China’s CATL. Ford Energy can power customers as large as energy grids. The news has driven Ford’s stock up over 20% in the last month.
A five-year look-back shows that Ford’s prospects remain poor in the minds of many investors. Ford’s stock is down 6% in the past five years, while the S&P 500 is up 71%. Ford’s stock was unusually high in early 2022, so the comparison with the current price will likely worsen soon. The comparison at that point is terrible; if Ford’s stock remains where it is, the dip from that time period will be closer to 20%.
The late 2021 and early 2022 stock price jump may have been caused by several factors. It exited Brazil, where it had done poorly. Ford was moving away from legacy models that had lost money. Despite this phase-out, Q3 2021 sales had been unexpectedly strong. Inflation, among other things, pushed the stock price down later in 2022. That erased the early 2022 stock price gains.
Ford’s stock did not exactly trade sideways from mid 2022 until early this year, but the trend was close to that. Increases and drops in overall sales moved it up and down over the period. So did Ford’s massive commitment to EVs and its exit from the sector.
Since Ford began shuttering its EV efforts, its management has begun to admit that Chinese EVs are the best in the world and might enter the US and severely cripple its sales.
What Ford’s price comes down to is that, at the end of the day, it is a legacy car company with sales dominated by the F-Series full-sized gas-powered pick-ups. These have been the best-selling vehicles in the US in decades. And, today, Ford is largely a domestic car company with very modest sales in overseas markets.
Ford Energy was a brilliant decision. Based on the stock price over a five-year period, investors do not anticipate another.