I keep buying Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) and I am not going to apologize for it. The stock is down 6.86% over the past month while CNBC anchors argue about June inflation prints, and every time my brokerage screen flashes red I add a few more shares. This is a position I have been compounding into because the underlying business has decoupled from whatever the Fed says next month, and the receipts keep arriving every 90 days.
The thesis I keep coming back to is simple: Amazon now runs three growth machines stacked on top of a retail empire that still grew 15% in units last quarter, the strongest reading since the tail end of COVID lockdowns. Andy Jassy summed it up in the Q1 report: “AWS is growing 28% (our fastest growth in 15 quarters) on a very large base, our chips business topped a $20 billion revenue run rate (growing triple digits year-over-year), Advertising grew to over $70 billion in TTM revenue.” Read that sentence twice. That is the whole investment case in 54 words.
The Three Compounding Engines
Start with AWS. Revenue hit $37.59 billion last quarter at a 37.7% operating margin, and the customer list now includes OpenAI committing roughly 2 GW of Trainium capacity through 2027 and Anthropic securing up to 5 GW. That is a multi-year revenue runway already booked.
Then there is the advertising business that the title of this piece points to. Over $70 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, growing 24% year over year, attached to the most valuable purchase-intent data on earth. Ads carry margins closer to software than to retail, and management is still pushing into Netflix, Spotify, and Roku inventory.
Third, the custom silicon stack. Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro chips crossed a $20 billion annual run rate with triple-digit year-over-year growth. Amazon is becoming a chipmaker that happens to own a cloud, which compresses cost per token and widens the moat.
The composite financials show it. Q1 revenue rose 16.61% to $181.52B, EPS came in at $2.78 against a $1.73 estimate, and operating cash flow climbed 52.99% to $26.03 billion. Interest coverage sits at 35.17. This is a balance sheet that can fund ambition.
The Risk I Acknowledge
The honest part. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis collapsed 95% to $1.2 billion because CapEx ran 76.68% higher year over year, and long-term debt climbed to $119.1 billion from $65.6 billion. Jassy has guided to roughly $200 billion in CapEx for 2026. If AI demand pauses, the depreciation bill arrives anyway. I have made peace with that risk because the customers signing multi-gigawatt contracts are the same companies setting AI roadmaps, and the spend is building owned infrastructure rather than rented capacity.
Why The Buy Button Stays Active
Q2 guidance calls for 16% to 19% revenue growth, the stock has compounded 596.56% over ten years, and analyst consensus sits at $312.51 against today’s $246.02. June volatility gave me a discount on a business growing three engines at once. I will keep buying until the thesis breaks, and the thesis is not breaking.