Wall Street Is Doing to GPUs What It Did to Mortgages Before 2008

Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, has been making rounds with a thesis that should rattle anyone who lived through 2008. Speaking on Bloomberg Businessweek, White described what he calls “the financialization of GPUs”, a nascent debt market backed by graphics processors that has grown from a few billion dollars cumulatively to $65 billion of GPU-backed debt in 2025 alone. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) itself sold $25 billion in 7-year bonds with strong initial trading. A futures market for GPUs is reportedly next, which would let investors short the underlying chips. White says the architecture rhymes with mortgage-backed securities circa 2006.

The setup is recognizable. Take an illiquid, hard to value asset. Pool it. Borrow against it. Sell tradeable claims on the cash flows. Repeat until originators, buyers, and lenders are tangled enough that a hiccup in collateral value becomes systemic. With mortgages, the collateral was houses, which depreciate slowly and unevenly. With GPUs, the collateral runs hot, gets superseded by new architecture every two years, and may be functionally obsolete before the loan amortizes.

The neocloud at the center of the trade

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) exemplifies what White is describing. The company posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion, up 111.7% year over year, against a net loss of $740 million. Capital expenditures hit $7.7 billion in a single quarter, up from $1.41 billion a year earlier, and free cash flow ran to negative $4.71 billion. Total liabilities now sit at $50.81 billion against $55.57 billion in assets. Interest expense doubled year over year to $536 million.

CoreWeave funds this with non-recourse, GPU-collateralized loans. The disclosed $99.4 billion revenue backlog, including a $21 billion Meta commitment, is the asset against which lenders underwrite. CEO Michael Intrator framed it on the Q1 call as “positioned our capital structure to scale with the opportunity ahead.” Shares are up 45% year to date, though they remain down 33% over the past year.

The circular financing loop

NVIDIA put $2 billion of equity into CoreWeave and a $2 billion pre-funded warrant into Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS). Both companies then buy NVIDIA GPUs. Nebius has a trailing P/E of 103 and price-to-sales of ~75, with negative EBITDA. The balance sheet carries total convertible debt principal of $10.04 billion. The notes accrete to 120% of face at maturity. Total liabilities grew 1,040% year over year to $15.06 billion. Nebius extended the assumed useful life of its GPUs from four years to five, which mechanically lowers depreciation expense and flatters reported earnings. Shares are up 212% year to date.

NVIDIA invests in the customer, the customer borrows against GPUs to buy more NVIDIA chips, and the bonds get sold into a market that priced NVIDIA at a $4.95 trillion market cap on the strength of those same orders. The 2008 analog was a bank originating a mortgage, securitizing it, and financing the buyer of the security. White’s point is structural.

Depreciation is the part that does not rhyme

White invoked Mike Burry, of The Big Short fame, who has argued that major GPU holders are not properly accounting for how fast the chips lose value. Whether the useful life is three to four years or seven to eight, the math demands aggressive loan paydown. A house bought in 2006 was still a house in 2010. An H100 bought in 2024 is competing with Blackwell, then Rubin, then whatever Jensen unveils next.

Demand destruction is emerging at the edges, with AI token usage hitting capacity limits and some application economics getting questioned. NVIDIA’s own SEC-filed Q1 FY27 report disclosed supply commitments of $119 billion and multi-year cloud service commitments of $30 billion, forward obligations that look prudent in expansion and load-bearing in contraction (see the Q1 FY27 release).

White closed by quoting Jim Grant. “Progress in science is cumulative, and in markets and finance, it’s cyclical.” The chips will keep getting better. The financing structures built around them have done this before.