Goldman Sachs dropped four high-conviction calls on July 9, 2026. The number turning heads is a $2,159 price target on Comfort Systems USA (NYSE:FIX | FIX Price Prediction), a contracting services company for the trades. Analysts paired that Buy initiation with a fresh Buy upgrade on Toast (NYSE:TOST) and two Sell calls: a downgrade of Granite Construction (NYSE:GVA) and a downgrade of toymaker Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT).
The $2,159 Call on Comfort Systems
Goldman frames Comfort Systems as “a leading mechanical and electrical contractor with significant leverage to the AI infrastructure build-out,” forecasting a 23% organic growth CAGR from 2025-2028. The stock closed at $1,756.09 on July 10, has gained 88.34% year to date, and 229.77% over the past year. Goldman’s target implies further upside from here.
The fundamentals back the thesis. Comfort’s Q1 2026 revenue hit $2.87 billion, up 56.5% year over year, with diluted EPS of $10.51 crushing the $6.81 consensus. Backlog nearly doubled to $12.45 billion year over year, with data center and technology infrastructure work now representing roughly 45% of revenue. CEO Brian Lane told investors:
“Our capabilities and reputation, combined with robust ongoing demand, resulted in higher backlog even with increased burn rates. Considering recent bookings, underlying persistent demand, and our strong pipelines, we are optimistic about our prospects for the next several quarters.”
UBS reiterated Buy with a $2,125 target citing “strong demand from the multi-year datacenter buildout by hyperscalers,” while Oppenheimer set $2,200. Shares trade at 38x forward earnings, rich but supported by 53.3% return on equity.
The Other Three Calls
Toast (Buy): Goldman spots a buying opportunity, upgrading shares after a 34.10% one-year decline. Analysts argued the company is “well positioned to outperform from here as a result of its best-in-class product offering,” with AI-enabled marketing services flagged as an ARPU accelerant. Toast added ~7,000 net locations in Q1 2026, reaching $2.2 billion in ARR. The upgrade does not erase headwinds. Toast shares are down sharply this year as higher hardware and memory costs threaten margins, while competition in SMB payments keeps pricing power under scrutiny. The stock is also fighting a tougher tape for payments names, with investors favoring faster-moving AI stories over transaction-processing businesses.
Granite Construction (Sell): Goldman is moving bearish after a strong turnaround, arguing that Granite’s next leg may be harder as the federal infrastructure funding cycle matures. The firm expects “real public construction spending to decelerate to a flat- to low-single-digit growth rate following the expiration of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.” Granite fell 16.08% over the past week alone but is up 6.1% YTD.
Mattel (Sell): Execution risk and geopolitical uncertainty drove the downgrade. Shares are down 32.81% YTD, with tariffs pressuring gross margin in Q1.
What to Watch
Comfort Systems reports Q2 earnings later this month. With three major banks now clustered above $2,100, execution on that $12.45 billion backlog is the swing factor. For deeper coverage of Goldman-style research calls, our Daily Profit report tracks the same catalysts. Keep an eye on the stock into earnings.
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