Netflix Is Getting Crushed. Here’s Why I’ll Start Buying

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) trades well below our 24/7 Wall St. price target. Shares closed at $67.68 after falling 27.9% year-to-date and 44.1% over the past year. Our proprietary model points materially higher on a 12-month view, and the drawdown looks like an entry point rather than a warning.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Netflix is $161.40, implying triple-digit upside from current levels. This reflects a stock that has become genuinely cheap relative to its earnings power.

Why Netflix Is Getting Crushed

NFLX is down 8.44% in the past week and 12.64% over the past month, now sitting 23% below the 52-week high of $126.71 and near the 52-week low of $65.08.

Q2 2026 delivered EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $12.559 billion, a slight revenue miss against a 13.37% YoY gain. Free cash flow fell 32.73% on higher cash taxes, and the earnings-day narrative was harsh: “Netflix beat earnings, did its biggest buyback and then restricted access to its engagement data and fell 12% through two days.” The market wanted a clean quarter and got a messy one.

The Case for $170 and Higher

The bull thesis rests on advertising. Netflix guided FY2026 ad revenue to roughly $3 billion, essentially doubling from $1.5 billion in 2025, with advertiser count up 70% YoY to over 4,000. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $51 to $51.4 billion, operating margin of 31.5%, and FCF near $12.5 billion.

Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of stock in Q2, its largest buyback ever, with $27.1 billion still authorized. Founder Reed Hastings bought 794,250 shares in May and June at depressed prices, signaling insider conviction. Our bull case target sits at $173.18.

What Could Go Wrong

Bears have real ammunition. Content amortization is front-loaded into H1 2026, pressuring near-term margins, and $1 billion in debt matures later in 2026. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 18% probability that NFLX finishes this week above $70, and composite sentiment has fallen 21.79 points over 30 days. 

Bulls counter that the Q2 FCF drop was driven by cash tax timing and the Warner Bros. termination. Our bear case still lands at $130.55, well above today’s price.

How Netflix Stacks Up Against Disney and Spotify

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is the natural streaming comp given its Disney+ and Hulu streaming platforms. Disney’s SVOD margins remain well below Netflix’s. That margin gap makes Netflix’s 33.4% operating margin premium-worthy and supports the higher multiple in our target.

Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) is the audio streaming comp, continuing to grow Premium Subscribers at a healthy pace. Spotify trades at a much richer multiple than Netflix on forward earnings, making the discount on NFLX look mispriced relative to its scale, margins, and buyback capacity. The peer set makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable.

The Bull Case Summary

The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $161.40, our recommendation is buy, and confidence sits at 90%. The combination of a doubling ad business, a $27 billion buyback runway, and founder-level insider buying into weakness is compelling.

Investors may want to watch for a move toward the $65 52-week low as H2 FCF confirms guidance. Key risks include Q3 revenue missing the $12.86 billion guide or the $1 billion refinancing hitting at penal rates.

Netflix Price Prediction 2026-2030

These projections assume Netflix executes on ad-tier scale-up and defends operating margins. Significant upside or downside could come from live sports economics and GenAI content adoption pace.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.