I keep hitting the buy button on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) because every quarter AI capex grows larger, and NVIDIA collects at each layer. Hyperscalers order racks, sovereigns order factories, enterprises order runtime. That is the conviction.
The Thesis in One Sentence
NVIDIA monetizes today’s hardware cycle at rack scale while building the software and networking tollbooth for the next one. Jensen Huang framed it plainly on the last call: “The buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed.” The custom thesis is the same one management executes: turnkey Blackwell racks proprietary NVLink interconnects capture today’s capex, then NIM microservices, CUDA, and NVLink Fusion fabric licensing turn one-time hardware sales into structural, compounding cash flow.
Three Reasons the Money Keeps Going Here
First, operating leverage is delivering. Fiscal 2026 revenue landed at $215.9 billion, up from $130.5 billion the year prior, with net income of $120.1 billion and operating margin of 60.4%. SG&A fell from 9.0% of revenue in FY2023 to 2.1% in FY2026. Companies do not scale like this without pricing power.
Second, the current quarter confirms the story. Q1 FY2027 revenue hit $81.615 billion, beating consensus by 3.16% on non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, a fourth straight beat. Data Center revenue reached $75.246 billion, up 92% year over year, with networking growing 199%. Gross margin came in at 75.0%. Q2 guide points to $91.0 billion in revenue.
Third, valuation remains reasonable. Forward P/E sits at 23 with a PEG of 0.559. Return on equity is 114.3%. Management authorized an $80.0 billion repurchase and lifted the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. Retirement accounts get paid to wait.
Why Not the Obvious Alternatives
The two names I get asked about are Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL). Broadcom’s CEO targets over $100 billion in AI revenue by 2027. That is a 2027 aspiration. NVIDIA already printed $75.2 billion in Data Center revenue in a single quarter. Marvell trades at 47x forward earnings, roughly double NVIDIA’s 23 forward multiple, for slower growth. I would rather own the platform every custom silicon design still has to interconnect with.
The Risk I Refuse to Wave Off
China is the real risk. Huang called it out directly: “Losing access to the China AI accelerator market, which we believe will grow to nearly $50 billion, would have a material adverse impact on our business.” The company took a $4.5 billion H20 inventory charge and shipped zero H20 units to China in Q1 FY2027. That is real money. It has not changed my thesis because NVIDIA grew Data Center 92% year over year with China effectively zeroed out, and total supply commitments now stand at $119.0 billion. The rest of the world is absorbing the capacity.
Why the Buy Button Stays Active
Analyst consensus is 58 buys to 1 sell with a $302.31 target. This works as long as AI factories keep growing, software attach keeps rising, and NVLink remains the fabric everyone standardizes on. Every quarter so far, that is exactly what has happened. Until that pipeline changes, my money keeps going in.
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