Strategy Reports Earnings: What the Bitcoin Bet Looks Like Now
Strategy just reported a staggering quarterly loss that would sink most companies, yet analysts remain almost unanimously bullish on the stock. Understanding why requires looking past the income statement and into what the balance sheet actually holds.
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MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) closed at $97.74 after posting a $8.22 billion Q2 net loss driven almost entirely by an $8.32 billion unrealized bitcoin markdown.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for MSTR is $337.65, implying 245.45% upside over the next 12 months. Confidence is moderate at 50%, reflecting the fact that MSTR is effectively a leveraged bitcoin proxy.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $97.74 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $337.65 |
| Upside | 245.45% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 50% |
Bitcoin’s Drawdown, Strategy’s Drawdown
MSTR is down 75.26% over the past year and 35.68% year to date, trailing bitcoin’s own 44.11% one-year drop and 26.06% YTD decline. The stock sits 27% below its 52-week high of $414.36.
Q2 revenue of $122.37 million grew 6.88% year over year but fell 1.70% short of the $124.48 million consensus. Reported EPS of -$24.45 missed the $3.07 consensus by 895.3%, but subscription services grew 54% to $62.86 million. Bitcoin holdings grew 11% to 846,000 BTC, and convertible debt fell 18% to $6.7 billion.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
The bull case is straightforward: bitcoin recovers. Our bull scenario points to $447.36, a 357.7% total return. BTC is already up 7.9% over the last month to $64,697, and Strategy’s $3.75 billion USD Reserve covers preferred obligations for more than 2.1 years.
The 54% jump in subscription revenue shows the software business compounds underneath bitcoin volatility. Analysts polled see 93% bullish sentiment with zero sell ratings.
What Could Go Wrong
Our bear case lands at $258.44, still above spot but sobering. Bitcoin’s cost basis of $63.9 billion now exceeds carrying value of $49.7 billion, and Q2 preferred dividends consumed $400.7 million. Polymarket assigns a 36.5% probability to MSCI index delisting by year-end. Insider transactions have skewed net selling.
Bulls counter that the accounting loss is non-cash and convertible debt reduction of 18% in one quarter meaningfully de-risks the capital structure.
How Strategy Compares to Coinbase and Marathon
Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) is the closest large-cap crypto-linked equity, with a market cap of $36.4 billion, essentially matching MSTR’s $34.1 billion. But COIN generates $1.22 billion in quarterly revenue against Strategy’s $122.37 million.
On a revenue-to-market-cap basis, MSTR’s valuation reflects its bitcoin stack far more than its software business. Our target looks aggressive on operating fundamentals but reasonable on a bitcoin-per-share basis.
MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) is the pure-play bitcoin miner comp, trading at a price-to-book of 1.30 with a $4.5 billion market cap. MARA also posted a nine-figure bitcoin markdown last quarter, confirming the pattern is sector-wide.
Strategy trades at a meaningful premium to MARA on price-to-BTC-held, which the market justifies by MSTR’s superior capital markets access. Our $337.65 target looks reasonable rather than heroic.
MicroStrategy Price Prediction 2026-2030
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $337.65 reflects a genuine buy at 50% confidence. Even the bear case at $258.44 sits well above today’s price. The setup looks constructive if bitcoin holds $60,000 and eventually reclaims $80,000. The risk widens if BTC breaks below $55,000, because MSTR’s beta of 3.55 will magnify that move.
Looking ahead, here is where our model projects MSTR could trade, assuming bitcoin resumes its long-term uptrend and Strategy continues accreting bitcoin per share.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $337.65 |
| 2027 | $720 |
| 2028 | $1,450 |
| 2029 | $2,300 |
| 2030 | $3,445.48 |
These projections assume Strategy continues executing its bitcoin accumulation playbook and BTC compounds toward six figures. Significant downside could result from a sustained bitcoin bear market or forced deleveraging of the convertible book.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
