It looks like shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) have finally launched, with shares gaining close to 10% on Wednesday or around 35% from recent lows. Indeed, it’s not hard to think that the Elon Musk fans are starting to feel that sense of FOMO again, especially as more analysts step up to the plate with some of their more bullish projections.
I won’t be the first to admit that SpaceX is a really difficult company to evaluate. Sure, it has economies of scale, a space monopoly, and many other monopolies that could be in the works, from space communications, orbital AI compute, and, perhaps a bit further down the line, lunar manufacturing.
Indeed, for fans of economic moats that could be, it’s hard not to want to get a piece of SpaceX, even though the present-day fundamentals don’t seem to amount to a market cap that’s flirting with the $2 trillion mark. Of course, there’s more than one way to get to $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a milestone that I think is a bit too aggressive, as I noted in a previous piece covering the name and the Wall Street-high price target of $800 on the shares.
It’s not hard to imagine that many SpaceX shareholders are hungry for a quick double, with some bigger believers looking for a multi-bagger within the next 12 months. As fun and exciting as the future of space is, investors should be coming into the name for the AI and staying for the space economy. As AI really stands to take off, autonomous coding agents, I think, could be the next game-changer for the industry.
Cursor and the agentic coding opportunity that looms
Of course, there’s already quite a bit of buzz surrounding agentic AI and coding models that software developers have made good use of. But the big question is what could happen once much of software engineering is taken care of by an agent that runs around the clock.
Is that kind of technology right around the corner? And is it necessary before we can achieve recursive self-improvement (or RSI)? Time will tell, but there’s no mystery as to why AI labs are so aggressively focusing on coding models.
From Anthropic’s Claude Code to OpenAI’s Codex, and now SpaceX’s Cursor, it feels like the biggest productivity gains at the frontier lie within the realm of coding. It’s a timely opportunity, and with SpaceX’s recent acquisition of the sought-after AI coding firm, I do think that xAI is in the same league as Anthropic and OpenAI, as they race to the holy grail that is a 24/7 coding agent that can scale at a rate that’s difficult for humans to fathom.
Given how quickly SpaceX is moving with its colossal Colossus data centers, it feels like Cursor now has everything it needs to floor it. Indeed, Cursor seems like a business that can best flourish in the hands of SpaceX, given its deep pockets and the talent it brings to the table. Can Cursor and Grok go toe-to-toe with Claude and Claude Code? As agentic coding capabilities look to skyrocket from here, I suppose anything is possible.
Another bullish target on SpaceX
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) recently unveiled its $600.00 bull-case price target on the shares, and Cursor plays a bit of a part in the target, which, while up there, isn’t quite a Street-high (the high watermark is $800 per share). The firm sees Cursor’s annual recurring revenue growing from $8 billion by year’s end to around $33 billion by 2030. Given its potential to boost margins, perhaps Morgan Stanley is right to shine a light on a bull case in addition to the base case.
It might not take long for SpaceX’s $60 billion deal to buy Cursor to prove an absolute bargain, especially if it helps SpaceX get to $600 from the $145 level it stands at today. Cursor is a big deal that analysts are just starting to appreciate. And while it’s nice to be excited about space, the most exciting part of SpaceX for the next 12-18 months, in my view, is the agentic coding and its potential to grant SpaceX a cash cow just like Starlink.
With two cash cows in the works and the option to rent out AI data centers on the ground and in space, perhaps it’s a mistake to doubt the company over its hefty CapEx.
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