Shares of Ondas Holdings (NASDAQ:ONDS) are down 8% at midday Thursday after the drone and counter-UAS company reported second quarter results before the open. The stock opened at $10 and has traded as low as $9 intraday. The move breaks a stretch of momentum that had carried ONDS up 40% over the past month.
Raised Guide, Falling Stock
The unusual part of today’s reaction is that Ondas actually lifted its outlook. The Stocktwits headline from August 13, 2026 asks “Why Is ONDS Stock Falling Even After Ondas Raised Its 2026 Revenue Outlook?” That framing matters. The disappointment lies elsewhere.
Coming into earnings, Ondas had already raised its FY2026 revenue target to at least $390M in May, and the Q2 8-K filed this morning did not derail that trajectory. What appears to be weighing on the stock is the setup around it. ONDS carries an EV/Revenue of 40. Even looking forward to 2027, Ondas still traded for a forward P/S that was above 10 headed into earnings.
Layer on the acquisition complexity. Our prior reporting flagged that Ondas had acquired six companies during 2026, which raises legitimate questions on integration, organic versus acquired revenue mix, and share issuance. And the stock came into earnings trading richly. History supports the sensitivity: across the last seven prints, ONDS averaged a 1-week post-earnings change of -8%. Today’s drop fits that pattern more than it breaks it.
Ondas’ guidance calls for revenue between $525 million and $550 million. At the midpoint, that’s comfortably above Wall Street’s expectations of $525.6 million. So, once again, this points to losses after the stock had run up recently and expectations drifted above current sell-side expectations.
Scaling is expected to continue next year, with Wall Street forecasting $990 million in 2027 revenue. Data from Capital IQ points to Wall Street expectations for 2030 currently sitting at $.55 in normalized EPS and revenues of $2 billion. After today’s sell-off, Ondas trades for about 16X that 2030 figure.
Is the Drone Group Following?
Short answer: not really. The peer tape is soft, but nothing like ONDS.
| Ticker | Today | 1-Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONDS | -7.52% | +40.37% | +0.10% |
| RCAT | -0.73% | +23.15% | +30.14% |
| AVAV | -3.46% | +36.68% | -19.88% |
| RDW | -1.11% | +40.67% | +77.50% |
| UMAC | -1.29% | +56.97% | +112.17% |
It appears Ondas may be having an impact across the borader drones space, with other stocks all ranging from slightly down to down 3.5%. Larger defense companies in the industrial sector are also under pressure as investors rotate to AI stocks.
Peer Setup at a Glance
Red Cat (NASDAQ:RCAT): Reported Q2 FY2026 on August 6, 2026, with revenue of $20.19 million missing consensus by 10.6% and a GAAP EPS of -$0.26. Management reaffirmed the $150M-$180M FY revenue target. It’s holding up today.
AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV | AVAV Price Prediction): Q4 FY2026 filed June 29, 2026, with revenue of $641.62 million beating estimates by 14.76% and adjusted EPS of $1.84 beating by 25%. FY2027 guide is $2.13B-$2.23B. Analyst target: $226.
Redwire (NYSE:RDW): Q2 FY2026 filed August 5, 2026, revenue $117.07 million beat by 8.74%, record backlog of $542.13 million, book-to-bill 1.42.
Unusual Machines (NYSE:UMAC): Q2 FY2026 filed August 6, 2026, revenue $16.72 million up 687% year over year, beating estimates by 81.87%, though Q3 growth will pause for capacity build.
What to Watch
Analyst target on ONDS sits at $19 with 8 Buy or Strong Buy ratings and zero Holds or Sells, so sell-side reaction into tomorrow will matter. I’d keep an eye on whether ONDS defends the 50-day moving average near $9 into the close.
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