Bill Ackman is back in Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction). On Thursday, August 13, 2026, Ackman unveiled six new holdings in his biggest portfolio overhaul in years, including Netflix, Mastercard (NYSE: MA), and Visa (NYSE:V). Per Reuters, he said the shares were acquired starting in the second quarter and will be held in his investment funds, including Pershing Square USA (NYSE:PSUS). He held Netflix briefly in 2022 and sold at a loss. He is re-entering while the stock trades deeply out of favor.
How Netflix Makes Money Now
Today’s Netflix differs from the growth-at-all-costs streamer of 2022. The company has crossed 325 million paid subscribers, and its ad-supported tier has become the primary on-ramp for new members. The ad tier represented over 60% of all Q1 sign-ups in countries where ads are available, with the advertiser count growing 70% year over year to more than 4,000 clients. Management expects ad revenue to roughly double to around $3 billion in 2026.
The buyback engine is substantial. Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion worth of its shares in Q2 2026, its largest buyback quarter ever, with $27.1 billion remaining under authorization. After walking away from the Warner Bros. deal, Netflix collected a $2.80 billion termination fee and resumed aggressive stock buybacks.
What $1,000 in Netflix Would Be Worth Today
Here’s where it gets interesting. Netflix has trailed the S&P 500 heading into Ackman’s purchase. Have a look at what $1,000 invested in Netflix would have done for you.
| Netflix | S&P 500 | |
| 5-Year Return | 51.50% ($1,515) | 74.41% ($1,741) |
| 1-Year Return | −36.48% ($635) | 20.37% ($1,204) |
| YTD Return | −16.64% ($834) | 13.85% ($1,139) |
Netflix has trailed the S&P 500 over the past year and year to date, while the five-year figure remains positive but lags the index. Ackman is buying a genuine laggard, consistent with his value-oriented approach. That fits the value setup he prefers, though price weakness alone does not guarantee a bargain.
The Takeaway
Ackman’s long-term record is strong, but recent performance has been rough. Through July 2026, Pershing Square USA was down 3.5% for the year, and London-listed Pershing Square was down 9.2%, versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 total return index. The 2022 Netflix exit proves he is not infallible.
Netflix looks compelling if you believe the ad tier scales to $3 billion as guided, margins expand toward the 31.5% target, and buybacks shrink the share count. The bear case strengthens if a P/E near 30 is too rich for a business where free cash flow declined 32.73% year over year in Q2 and competition from Alphabet, Amazon, Disney, and YouTube continues to intensify.
The setup is more attractive than it was a year ago, when Netflix traded at around $123. Ackman is buying weakness in a cash-generative, buyback-heavy franchise with clear ad-tier growth. However, content costs and a $1 billion debt maturity later in 2026 will test the story.
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