Alibaba or NetEase: Which Stock Could Soar After Earnings?

By Trey Thoelcke Published Aug 19, 7:35AM EDT

Quick Read

Alibaba (BABA) edges out NetEase (NTES) as the top growth pick, with 23% implied upside to analyst targets and 40% cloud revenue growth last quarter.
Despite Polymarket pricing an 80% chance Alibaba misses earnings, its AI reinvestment targets RMB 30 billion in MaaS ARR by year-end.
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Alibaba or NetEase: Which Stock Could Soar After Earnings? — © 24/7 Wall St.

Alibaba (NYSE:BABA | BABA Price Prediction) and NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) both step onto the earnings stage before the open on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with Alibaba reporting fiscal Q1 2027 and NetEase reporting Q2 2026. This simultaneous reporting gives investors a real choice for a growth allocation: the AI and cloud reinvestment story or the cash-generative gaming franchise. For a growth-oriented investor, which stock is more attractive ahead of the report?

Analyst Consensus and Buy-Side Tilt

The sell side is heavily bullish on both, but the degree differs. Alibaba shows 8 Strong Buy, 30 Buy, one Hold, no Sell, and one Strong Sell ratings, with 95% bullish sentiment and 3% bearish. NetEase counts 6 Strong Buy, 25 Buy, one Hold, and zero Sell ratings, with 97% bullish sentiment and 0% bearish. NetEase has a cleaner consensus with no bearish analyst on record, while Alibaba still has one Strong Sell dissenter. Winner: NetEase.

Price Target and Implied Upside

Alibaba last traded at $128.15, compared with an analyst target of $189.73 and a 24/7 Wall St. model base case of $157.65, implying 23.0% upside, with a 0.9 confidence score. NetEase closed at $124.75, compared with a $161.82 analyst target and a 24/7 Wall St. model target of $151.67, implying 21.58% upside at 0.9 confidence. Note that the prediction-markets dashboard shows a separate NetEase AI target of $147.61 with 18.33% upside, a small discrepancy suggesting the model is sensitive to Q2 earnings assumptions. Alibaba offers greater upside to the analyst consensus and a longer runway if AI cloud monetization continues to accelerate. Winner: Alibaba.

Sentiment Momentum and Performance Into the Report

Alibaba is running hot. Shares are up 11.5% over the past month and 5.6% over one year, though year to date is −13.0%, with a beta of 0.51. That momentum comes with a cautionary signal: Polymarket assigns an 80% probability that Alibaba will not beat quarterly earnings, based on 1,734.26 contracts of volume. NetEase has drifted the other way, down 5.0% on the month, 11.2% year to date, and 4.3% over one year, with a beta of 0.80. No active prediction markets exist on NetEase earnings. Alibaba faces a higher expectations bar and bearish sentiment; NetEase faces a lower bar and weaker price momentum. Winner: NetEase.

The Verdict

NetEase wins two of three scored dimensions, but the growth case belongs to Alibaba. The Q4 FY2026 report showed Cloud Intelligence Group external revenue accelerating to 40% growth, AI-related product revenue posting an 11th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth, and MaaS ARR expected to exceed RMB 10 billion in the June quarter and RMB 30 billion by year-end, alongside quick commerce revenue up 57% year over year. NetEase, by contrast, grew total Q1 2026 revenue 6% and games 7% year over year, with gross margin expanding from 54.1% to 69.4%. Cleaner, but slower.

A growth portfolio bets on companies reinvesting for future returns, and Alibaba best represents that thesis. The single biggest risk to owning the winner is structural, and it applies to both tickers: U.S.-listed ADRs of China-based operators trade through VIE structures rather than direct equity ownership in the mainland business, and both Chinese regulatory intervention and U.S. audit-oversight and delisting risk loom over every fundamental consideration. That risk is the price of entry into this growth story. For now, Alibaba is the more attractive growth pick.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.