GoPro Spikes 11% as Lumentum Eases and Coherent Holds Flat: Is This a Merger Trade or a Meme Trade?
GoPro is surging double digits while its supposed optical-sector peers sit flat or fall, and no deal update has hit the wire. Something is driving this stock, and it may not be what merger watchers expect.
Shares of GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) are up 11% to $1.57 in late-morning trading Thursday, extending a rerating that has lifted the action camera maker 124% over the past month. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.43% on the session. Also, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is off 2%, so today’s green tape is essentially confined to GoPro.
This move sits on top of a merger backdrop that has been on the wires since September 1. GoPro agreed in late August to combine with Starman Optical, a privately held U.S. maker of optical transceivers, with GoPro shareholders receiving $1.14 per share in cash and retaining 10% of the combined company’s outstanding shares. Content creator Markiplier separately disclosed a stake in late August that made him GoPro’s largest individual shareholder, which drew retail flow into what had been a straightforward strategic transaction.
That setup was severe. GoPro’s August 10 quarterly release disclosed substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, with Q2 2026 revenue of $104.93 million, down 31.3% year over year, and cash drained to $27.27 million. A board-authorized strategic review had been underway all summer, and Starman Optical is the outcome.
No Fresh Catalyst Explains the Move
Nothing new has crossed the wire this morning. The deal announcement is nearly two weeks old, and the last GoPro 8-K on file is dated August 10. No operating update, no revised terms, and no scheduled meeting has landed today to explain a session move of this size.
Options positioning fits the picture. The full-chain put-call ratio for GPRO sits at 0.17, and the busiest short-dated contracts by volume relative to existing open interest are September 18 calls at the $1.50 and $2 strikes. That mix leans speculative rather than deal-arbitrage.
What GoPro stock does have is a sub-$2 quote where a small burst of retail buying can dominate a full session. Twenty cents translates to a double-digit percentage, and the merger structure hands existing holders a cash payment plus a small stub of a private company with no public operating history. A bid on the stub is a bid on faith.
AI-Optical Peers Aren’t Leading
Coherent (NYSE:COHR | COHR Price Prediction) stock is up 0.4% to $304.76, essentially unchanged on a session when the broader semiconductor complex is under pressure. Meanwhile, Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) stock is down 2% to $969.04, giving back a slice of the run that carried into its August fiscal fourth quarter release. These are the two listed names GoPro’s merger is meant to place it alongside.
The fundamental backdrop at those two is very different. Coherent posted fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $2.05 billion, up 34% year over year, with data center and communications making up 79% of total revenue. That is the AI-optical bull case in a single line, and it’s the same buildout we mapped through the power, cooling, and networking suppliers in a free AI infrastructure report here.
Lumentum’s fiscal Q4 2026 revenue was $1.01 billion, up 109.3% year over year, on non-GAAP EPS of $3.23. Guidance for the September quarter calls for revenue between $1.225 billion and $1.275 billion. Neither business is trading like a proxy for GoPro.
Analyst desks continue to model AI-driven optical connectivity as a multi-year buildout. Coherent CEO Jim Anderson stated on the August call that the company sees “no signs of attenuation in customer demand,” and Lumentum management said the business reached its target operating model more than a quarter ahead of schedule. Those are the reasons the two stocks have run, and none of it explains GoPro today.
What to Watch
The action today is answering the question in the headline. A 14% session for GoPro on a day when Coherent sits flat, Lumentum is lower, and the SOXX semiconductor ETF is off carries the signature of an idiosyncratic move. It looks like a low-priced, high-beta stock carrying a merger overhang, a celebrity shareholder, and a retail bid.
The Starman deal is expected to close by year-end, subject to regulatory and stockholder approval. Investors can watch for whether the premium to the $1.14 cash consideration compresses as the closing window narrows, or whether the equity stub of the combined private-company entity keeps drawing bids on momentum alone, according to GoPro. Position sizing on their exposure should reflect a stock that can move both ways in double digits within a single session.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
