DraftKings Dips as Adjusted Data Narrows Kalshi’s 76% Prediction-Market Lead; Robinhood and Flutter Entertainment Slip

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG | DKNG Price Prediction) stock is falling 2% to $20.77 as fresh sports volume figures from investment bank Needham focus the debate over who is winning prediction markets. Needham’s data showed Kalshi captured 76% of sports prediction-market volume in the opening week of the National Football League (NFL) season, while DraftKings’ own exchange, DKeX, took 3%. That gap is the heart of the argument against DraftKings’ push into the category.

For comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.29%, which leaves the broad market a poor explanation for the selling. Sportsbook operators and the prediction-market platforms competing with them are trading on this share debate, with DraftKings at its center. With DraftKings stock down 38% year to date through the last settled close, the latest pressure extends a decline already underway.

A crowded field of rivals surrounds DraftKings in the race for sports prediction volume. Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) owns FanDuel, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) also offers prediction-market contracts, and privately held Polymarket competes with Kalshi for the same volume. HOOD stock is down 1% to $119.80 while FLUT stock is down 2% to $80.56. Fund holders feel the rivalry as well, since the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSEARCA:BETZ) holds both DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment.

Adjusted Figures Trim Kalshi’s Lead

Needham’s headline number reflects exchange volume, which totals every transaction, including repeated trades in the same contract by professional participants, while a sportsbook order at DraftKings counts once when the customer places it, so the two measures aren’t comparable dollar for dollar. Professional desks that cycle in and out of a contract add to Kalshi’s exchange total every time.

On a consumer-equivalent basis, Needham’s figures put Kalshi’s share at 67%, while DKeX holds essentially steady. That adjustment reduces Kalshi’s lead, yet DraftKings’ exchange still claims only a fraction of volume from the busiest week on the sports calendar, and with DKeX in its first football season, DraftKings has little history to show how quickly that share can grow.

Licensing Could Reshape the Fight

DraftKings holds sportsbook licenses across dozens of states, and that footprint carries new weight after a legal development this month. A federal appeals court held that two California tribes are likely to succeed in arguing that Kalshi’s sports contracts violate federal Indian gaming law. If courts push prediction markets under gaming law, DraftKings’ licensing position could turn into an advantage.

Needham’s volume figures leave that question unanswered, and the court’s finding addresses only the likelihood of success. For now, DraftKings’ regulatory footprint is a potential edge that has yet to show up in its exchange share. Such an outcome could favor companies like DraftKings that already operate under state gaming regulators.

Management at DraftKings sounded far more upbeat on its Q2 2026 earnings call in August, describing the predictions offering as growing faster than expected. CEO Jason Robins stated, “While still early, we are seeing double-digit share in the markets where we participate.” That claim covers only markets where DraftKings is active, a narrower lens than Needham’s category-wide count.

Weighing DraftKings’ Upside and Risk

DraftKings’ bull case rests on a young exchange, a licensed state footprint and a legal background that may favor regulated operators. Supporters can also point to the adjusted Needham measure, which shows Kalshi’s lead narrowing once repeated professional trading is converted to a consumer basis. Its exchange is also new enough that share could build as the football schedule continues.

Skeptics see a simpler story for DraftKings. Kalshi took the large majority of sports volume in the NFL’s opening week, and DKeX won almost none of it under either measure. The market wants proof. A steep slide this year suggests that hesitation before it credits the predictions push with much value, and a single adjusted data point offers limited evidence.

What to Watch Next

Traders should keep an eye on share figures from later NFL weeks, since a single early look of DKeX can shift quickly as DraftKings moves more volume onto its exchange. Further rulings in the California tribal case could change how the market values DraftKings’ sportsbook licenses. Any fresh commentary from DraftKings management on how much volume has moved to DKeX could also focus the picture.

Given how far DraftKings stock has already fallen, investors should keep their positions moderate and size their exposure so another leg lower stays manageable. Anyone building a larger position could scale in gradually, letting the next rounds of volume data test the adjusted-share argument. A bigger DKeX slice of the category would give DraftKings the proof point that its current figures lack.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.