Anthropic’s Prospectus Shows a Giant Loss and an Even Bigger Ask
Anthropic filed confidentially for an IPO at a valuation that would place it above some of the most established names in tech, yet its financials raise hard questions about whether public markets will price ambition the same way private backers…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
According to a confidential draft prospectus reviewed by Reuters, Anthropic, the maker of the Claude models, grew revenue to $4.6 billion in 2025, about 12 times the roughly $400 million it booked in 2024.
It also lost about $42 billion that year, and it is reportedly seeking up to $100 billion at a valuation above $2 trillion.
The draft was filed confidentially, so no registration statement sits on EDGAR and no ticker has been disclosed.
The chipmakers behind Anthropic’s compute barely moved in premarket trading on September 30, 2026: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) rose 0.69% to $228.78, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) rose 0.39%, and TSMC (NYSE:TSM) slipped 0.32%.
The question is whether public investors will pay a mega-cap price for a company still losing money.
What the $42 Billion Loss Conceals
Roughly $34 billion of that loss was a non-cash accounting charge tied to investor funding, an expense recorded on paper that never left the bank.
The operating loss of more than $8 billion matters more, because it is what running Claude at 2025 scale cost.
The company says it is on track for an adjusted operating profit in the third quarter of 2026 and holds $20.28 billion in cash.
That profit measure is company-defined and cannot be verified until the numbers are public.
A Revenue Curve That Must Keep Climbing
Anthropic recorded $4.73 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $11.5 billion in the second quarter, so a single quarter exceeded all of 2025.
That steep growth likely reflects existing customers increasing usage, though the figures do not separate new accounts from expansion.
NVIDIA says Vera Rubin delivers 35X lower token costs than its prior generation, so Anthropic’s usage must grow faster than AI prices fall.
$518 Billion in Commitments Meets Customer Concentration
Anthropic has committed $518 billion to computing capacity over roughly 10 years, a fixed schedule set against revenue still being discovered.
Contracted spending that large makes the business look capital-intensive, which markets value below software.
About 25% of revenue comes from two customers, and the reporting does not identify them.
Losing one would be a revenue event, while keeping one on worse terms would be a margin event.
Moreover, OpenAI’s opposite move undercuts the ask.
The reported target is a large step up from Anthropic’s $965 billion private valuation in May 2026, driven more by limited public AI exposure than revenue.
OpenAI is reportedly raising at least $30 billion privately at about $1.4 trillion and delaying its listing, despite annualized revenue nearing $70 billion. Its chief executive, identified in that reporting as Sam Altman, called this an “ill-advised moment” to go public.
Anthropic would surpass a rival with more revenue and sit near TSMC’s $2.04 trillion market value, suggesting a revaluation when new stock meets finite demand.
The prospectus also warns of “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” including “self-preserving behaviors,” an unusual disclosure choice.
Is this IPO Worth Chasing When It Happens?
Let’s look at the broader AI sector first. The stronger case for AI stocks lies at the infrastructure layer. Anthropic’s commitment shows AI money reaches suppliers before model developers.
Broadcom’s management said Anthropic is on track to become its largest XPU customer in 2027, while NVIDIA and TSMC trade at 17 and 21 times forward earnings.
Skeptics worry that one lab’s slowdown hits every supplier’s order book. When the filing goes public, check whether operating losses narrowed in the first half of 2026; if they did not, the $2 trillion ask fails.
As it pertains to Anthropic’s IPO specifically, I will buy into it, but I’d expect it to be a repeat of the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) IPO, where the stock rises significantly early on, followed by a correction or a lull.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
