New Mexico Wants Meta to Pay Up to $40 Billion. A Judge Rules This Month
A Santa Fe judge holds the power to hand New Mexico a penalty that would dwarf anything Meta has ever paid, and the ruling lands this month. The gap between what the state demands and what Meta will accept is…
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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) closed at $741.90 on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, up 1.9% for the session. Meanwhile, a Santa Fe state judge is deciding how much the company owes New Mexico.
The court was asked to order Meta to pay. The New Mexico Department of Justice seeks at least $35 billion and up to $40 billion in penalties. Meta says the penalty should be capped at $3.45 billion.
Liability is already decided. A jury found against Meta in a data privacy case rooted in the Cambridge Analytica era. What remains is the amount, and the judge is expected to rule in October 2026.
Nothing has been ordered yet. Meta can appeal whatever the court decides. Even a very large ruling would be a starting point for further litigation.
How the Penalty Math Gets So Large
Jurors in their Sept. 25, 2026 verdict found 26 of 29 Meta statements misleading and counted more than 43 million violations, each carrying a penalty of up to $5,000.
Multiplied out, those figures produce a ceiling no company could pay. The state’s request is about 20% of the statutory maximum.
Statutory penalties count individual acts and ignore measured damage, so judges tend to award less than states request. In a separate child safety case, a New Mexico jury set Meta’s penalties at up to $375 million.
Randi McGinn is outside counsel for the New Mexico Department of Justice. She pressed the court to impose the $40 billion penalty. She also pressed the court to punish Meta “in the only language it understands, which is money.”
What a Top-End Ruling Would Cost Meta
Meta has a market value of roughly $1.89 trillion. Its second quarter 2026 revenue was $60.80 billion, and $59.36 billion of that came from advertising.
Free cash flow fell to $784 million in the second quarter while capital spending hit $30.12 billion. Meta recorded $2.4 billion in legal charges.
A ruling near the top of the range would far exceed the legal charges Meta booked in the second quarter. It would also reset expectations for the youth-related trials that Meta itself says may result in material losses.
Advertising revenue grew 27% in the second quarter, and the average price per ad rose 12%. Shares are up 20.37% over the past month.
Meta’s Muse agent has passed 5.6 million downloads. BNP Paribas has an $885 price target on the stock.
And with all that progress, scrutiny is spreading abroad. Norway’s digitalization minister has said the government will consider a ban on AI glasses.
What Will Decide META Stock’s Next Move
At about 27 times trailing earnings, you pay for a business growing revenue 28% a year. The legal cloud is large but has a limit.
The first test is the ruling. A number close to Meta’s $3.45 billion cap would remove most of the cloud. A number near the state’s request would likely weigh on the shares through an appeal.
The third-quarter report is expected after the close on Oct. 28, 2026, with a call at 4:30 PM ET. Watch for a new legal charge or an increase to the $165 billion to $169 billion expense outlook. If the stock trades below $741.90 after both events, the market is likely pricing in further legal damage.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
