Goldman Sachs Just Did the Opposite of BlackRock on Stocks
Goldman Sachs and BlackRock published opposite stock calls on the same day, yet the two firms agree on something that could matter far more to your portfolio than which side wins.
On October 12, 2026, two major strategy teams published stock calls that pointed in opposite directions. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) raised its three-month view on global stocks to overweight from neutral. That matched its 12-month overweight. BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) closed its long-held U.S. equity overweight and moved to neutral to fund an upgrade in U.S. Treasuries.
The two firms are closer than the headlines suggest. Goldman made a short-term call on global equities, and BlackRock cut U.S. stocks only to neutral, so both stayed constructive. Each firm reached its call independently.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) closed at $778.05 on October 13, just under its 52-week high of $781.62. At that level, the market reflects steady optimism and a measured pace.
Goldman Needs Earnings to Clear a High Bar
Christian Mueller-Glissmann leads the Goldman team. He said, “Earnings growth remains supportive for equities.” The team reasons that stock prices became less demanding after higher oil prices and bond yields stalled the rally.
Bloomberg Intelligence expects third-quarter S&P 500 profits to rise about 25%, and Goldman expects the actual result to beat that. That is a demanding bar, and earnings season will show within weeks whether companies clear it.
The team is overweight Asia and the U.S. and underweight Europe. It names higher rates, energy prices and the midterm elections as its main risks.
BlackRock wrote: “We also fund the Treasury upgrades by closing our long-held U.S. equity overweight to neutral.” Funding a trade means moving risk out of one position to pay for another. BlackRock’s move says Treasuries now offer better relative value, and U.S. equities still keep a full neutral weight. You can find BlackRock’s Treasury case in more detail in our October 13 coverage.
Both Firms Want to Own Bonds
Goldman stayed neutral on bonds over three months but moved to overweight over 12 months. It said bonds should gradually stop hurting portfolios and start protecting them. BlackRock moved short-term Treasuries to overweight.
That agreement changes how investors should read the split between stocks and bonds. Both firms are determining where investors get paid to take risk, and both now see bonds paying again.
BlackRock said, “Our fundamental convictions on AI transformation remain intact.” Goldman favors a mix of global technology stocks and rate-sensitive stocks that act like bonds.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) made up 7.58% of SPY as of March, so the index itself depends on AI capital spending. The firms disagree on timing and funding, but they agree on the AI theme, and the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the data-center expansion are the quieter way to own it (we covered seven of them in a free report).
What Could Move U.S. Stocks Next
The optimistic thesis depends on earnings. If third-quarter profits beat that roughly 25% forecast, Goldman’s upgrade will look early, not late.
Rates pose the main risk. Higher yields compete with stocks for investors’ money and put pressure on valuations in an index this heavy in AI stocks.
The long-term case for U.S. stocks remains solid. Both firms kept at least a neutral position on stocks, and SPY is up 14.09% this year.
If you are investing for retirement, though, the practical question is how much income you need and how long a bond horizon you want. Both firms now favor short-term Treasuries, which suggests a three-month view alone is a thin basis for changing a long-term stock allocation.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
