EQT’s Dividend Faces a Big Test: Can Natural Gas Cash Flow Hold Up?
EQT just raised its dividend again, but with buybacks taking priority and natural gas prices still volatile, income investors need to know exactly how much pressure the payout can withstand before the raises stop coming.
EQT (NYSE:EQT | EQT Price Prediction) raised its dividend again. On October 14, 2026, the board declared a quarterly payout of $0.17 per share, up from $0.165. That puts the annualized rate at $0.68. With the stock at $53.62, the forward yield is about 1.27%. That is a small yield. The real question is whether natural gas cash flow can keep the raises coming.
From Suspension Back to Steady Raises
For years, EQT paid a token $0.03 per quarter. On March 26, 2020, the board formally suspended the dividend so the cash could go toward paying down debt. Toby Rice was CEO at the time and explained the move:
“As we enhance our balance sheet and leverage metrics over time, we will revisit our shareholder return and dividend policy.”
Payments came back in 2022 at $0.125 per quarter. By the time of the Q3 2025 raise, the dividend had grown at a compound annual rate of about 8% since 2022. The latest increase is 3%, a slower pace than before.
Free Cash Flow Covers the Payout Several Times Over
In 2025, EQT generated $2.50B of free cash flow and paid $389.6 million in dividends, so free cash flow covered the dividend about 6.4 times. The weak-price test came in Q2 2026. NYMEX gas averaged $2.89/MMBtu that quarter, down from $3.43 a year earlier. Revenue fell 29.2%, and adjusted EPS of $0.39 missed the $0.41 consensus. Even so, free cash flow of $453.7M covered $103.2 million of dividends about 4.4 times. On the earnings call, CFO Jeremy Knop said the result showed EQT’s position “at the low end of the cost curve.”
Hedges limit how far prices can hurt. EQT has collars on 25% of production, with a weighted-average floor of $3.94/MMBtu.
Debt Target in Sight, With Buybacks Next
Total debt fell to $5.66B, down from $7.80B at the end of 2025. That puts EQT close to its $5 billion net debt target. Management made clear that buybacks, rather than the dividend, will get most of the extra cash. Knop said:
“During times of turbulence, our balance sheet will become a fortress and cash on hand a strategic tool to fund aggressive share buybacks and long-term growth investments, even in low-price environments.”
Rice added that “buybacks are going to be a big part of our M&A strategy.”
Power and LNG Contracts Lock In Future Demand
EQT signed a 10-year agreement to supply 325 million cubic feet per day to a planned 2 gigawatt power plant in West Virginia, with pricing tied to the PJM power market. Knop estimated that at full capacity, the deal could add about $100 million a year to free cash flow. A separate LNG offtake agreement that starts in 2028 should add about $45M to free cash flow that year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. LNG export capacity to reach 27.7 Bcf/d by 2030. Rice said EQT “has become the partner of choice in Appalachia” for power generators and data center developers.
How EQT Compares With Its Appalachian Peers
Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) pays $0.38 per share a year, a yield of 0.92%. Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) pays no dividend at all. Both companies sell into the same NYMEX market, but neither has EQT’s scale. EQT’s market value is $33.97B, compared with Antero’s $11.9B.
What It Means for Income Investors
Natural gas can keep paying for raises. Even with prices below $3, free cash flow covered the dividend about four times. Debt is close to target, and signed power and LNG deals will add cash flow later in the decade. Income investors should expect small raises, though. Management has said buybacks will be the main way it returns cash, so the dividend works best as a dependable, growing base rather than a source of high yield.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
