ServiceNow Fell 20% Over a Year But This Wall Street Analyst Predicts 70% Gains From Here
ServiceNow's AI business just crossed a major milestone while the stock still sits nearly 20% below where it traded a year ago, and one analyst on Wall Street sees an opportunity the rest of the market is ignoring.
ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) currently trades at $145.33. The average analyst price target is $152.23, which implies 4.7% upside.
ServiceNow sells a cloud platform that automates IT, HR, security and customer workflows, and it now positions itself as the “AI control tower” for large enterprises. Investors are watching because the AI revenue is real: ServiceNow AI crossed $1 billion in annual contract value, and agentic deployments rose 9x in 9 months.
The bigger gap comes from the high end of the Street. Bernstein’s Peter Weed holds an Outperform rating with a $248 target, the highest published. That implies 70.6% upside, a sharp break from where the market prices the stock.
AI Disruption Fears Cut ServiceNow by 58% From Its High
Fear that AI agents would make seat-based software obsolete did most of the damage. Shares fell from a 52-week high of $192.97 to a low of $81.24. That marks a decline of 57.9%. Software stocks entered a bear market in January, and ServiceNow plunged 10% in one session. The sector lost $1 trillion in a week.
ServiceNow added problems of its own. The stock tumbled nearly 15% after management warned that delayed Middle East deals would hit first-quarter subscription growth. Profit also took a hit: second-quarter operating income fell 54.75% to $162M as stock compensation and costs from the Moveworks, Veza and Armis deals piled up. The stock has since climbed 78.9% off its low, yet it is still down 19.58% over the past year.
Bernstein Says the Market Is Underpricing an AI Monetization Engine
Weed’s thesis has three parts. First, Now Assist premium levels expand contract value across existing seats, so AI revenue increases without long new sales cycles. Second, ServiceNow is the default coordination layer for IT, HR and customer workflows. Third, operating leverage should support strong free cash flow margins as subscriptions scale (per Bernstein).
The latest quarter supports that case. Revenue increases 24.0% to $3.987B, and EPS of $0.90 beat the $0.86 consensus, the company’s 4th consecutive beat. Current remaining performance obligations rose 21% to $13.20B, and deals above $1 million increases ~40%. Management’s 2030 targets include $30B+ in subscription revenue and 30% of ACV from AI.
Sentiment is generally positive, but most analysts are far less bullish than Weed. Of 49 analysts, 45 give the stock their top two ratings. Estimates have edged lower: the fiscal 2026 EPS average is at $4.0668, down from $4.1291 90 days ago, while fiscal 2027 stands at $5.0067. A price target is one analyst’s view, and it guarantees nothing.
Software Peers Fell Together, but Recovered Unevenly
The AI disruption trade hit the whole application software group, but each stock has recovered at its own pace.
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) trades at $242.51. It is up 0.63% over the year but down 7.81% year to date. Its $285.68 consensus target implies 17.8% upside. 38 analysts rate it Buy or better, against 15 Holds.
Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) trades at $195.20, down 16.67% over the year. Its $207.92 target implies 6.5% upside, and opinion is split: 20 Buy ratings, 19 Holds and 3 Sells.
On consensus targets, Salesforce offers the greatest potential gain among these names. ServiceNow’s case depends on whether Bernstein’s high-end view proves right.
ServiceNow Trails a Rising S&P 500
At $145.33, ServiceNow sits 4.7% below its $152.23 consensus target, based on 49 ratings. The stock is down 5.13% year to date and 19.58% over the year. Over the same periods, the S&P 500 rose 12.42% and 15.38%.
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 35
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
Momentum is improving, with a one-month gain of 7.28%. The forward P/E of 28 is far below the trailing multiple of 89.
Why I Lean Bullish but Doubt the Full $248
ServiceNow deserves a closer look here if AI contract value keeps growing and margins rebound once Armis integration costs fade in FY27. But I’d stay cautious if growth slows faster than the guidance suggests. The third-quarter subscription growth guide of 20.5% already reflects federal revenue pulled forward into the second quarter, along with a $35 million currency drag to remaining performance obligations.
I lean bullish. Growth above 20% at 28 times forward earnings looks reasonable for a business that is winning large customers. Still, the consensus target is a more realistic 12-month marker than the 70% call.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
