Pfizer’s High Dividend Yield May Be a Warning. Here’s How Merck Compares
Pfizer's 5.7% dividend yield towers over Merck's, yet that gap may signal something retirees cannot afford to ignore. Before you chase the bigger payout, the coverage numbers behind each dividend tell a very different story.
Merck (NYSE:MRK | MRK Price Prediction) or Pfizer (NYSE:PFE): which drug company dividend holds up better for retirement-focused investors right now? Pfizer pays roughly 5.7% against Merck’s 2.2%, and that gap is Pfizer’s whole pitch. On coverage and dividend growth, Merck comes out ahead. Most of Pfizer’s extra yield is pay for extra risk.
Income Safety: Merck’s Payout Has Cash to Spare
Pfizer pays $0.43 a quarter, or $1.72 a year, with shares at $30.06. Merck pays $0.85 a quarter ($3.40 a year) on a $151.48 stock. Part of Merck’s lower yield comes from its rally: shares rose 77.98% over the past year, compared with 29.48% for Pfizer.
Coverage is where the two split. In 2025, Pfizer generated $11.7 billion in operating cash flow and spent $2.63 billion on capital expenditures. It then paid $9.77 billion in dividends, which works out to about 108% of free cash flow. Free cash flow in the first half of 2026 covered only about 51% of the dividends Pfizer paid. Merck’s 2025 dividends used about 66% of free cash flow. In the first half of 2026, free cash flow covered 174% of the payout, even after acquisition charges pushed GAAP earnings into a loss.
Pfizer also has net debt of 3.01 times EBITDA, with leverage expected “to remain around current level or modestly higher through this transition period.” Its chief executive says the dividend holds up “even [in] the most stretched scenarios that we are running.” Even so, Pfizer has no buybacks planned in 2026. Merck is on pace for approximately $3 billion in repurchases. Winner: Merck.
Valuation: Pfizer’s Discount Is Real
Pfizer’s 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is $2.80 to $3.00. At the midpoint, the stock trades at about 10 times earnings. Merck’s 2026 guidance of $2.66 to $2.76 is affected by one-time charges of $3.62 per share for Cidara and $2.31 per share for Terns. Based on its 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $8.98, Merck trades at about 17 times earnings. Pfizer is cheaper. Its dividend also uses about 59% of forecast adjusted earnings, compared with Merck’s roughly 38% of 2025 non-GAAP EPS. Winner: Pfizer, and the market is pricing in its problems for good reason.
Growth and Patent Cliffs: Merck’s Replacements Are Already Selling
Both companies face patent cliffs. KEYTRUDA makes up nearly half of pharmaceutical revenues at Merck. The company’s chief executive calls the loss of exclusivity “more of a hill than a cliff” and expects “a shallow dip with a fast return back to growth.” Merck’s replacement products are already contributing. WINREVAIR sales rose 75% to $588 million, KEYTRUDA QLEX added $463 million, and LIPFENDRA won FDA approval. Merck also raised its 2026 sales guidance to $66.3 billion-$67.3 billion.
Pfizer is still absorbing the fall in its COVID products: Paxlovid sales dropped 95% and Comirnaty 34%. It also faces about $1.1 billion in revenue losses from generics and biosimilars. Vyndamax exclusivity runs to June 2031, but management targets a return to growth from 2029 onward. Its obesity drug berobenatide is aiming for a first approval in 2028. Winner: Merck.
Dividend Track Record Seals It
Merck raised its quarterly payout from $0.61 in 2020 to $0.85, about 39% growth. Over the same period, Pfizer’s went from $0.38 to $0.43, about 13%. Pfizer has held at $0.43 since January 2025, and management links future increases to the period after its exclusivity losses. Over five years, Merck shares returned 117.44%, while Pfizer fell 9.17%. Jim Cramer summed up the Pfizer case in May: “Pfizer does not have any earnings momentum.”
Verdict: Merck Is the Stronger Dividend for Retirement Income
Merck wins this comparison. Retirees need a check that keeps up with inflation and a payout funded by cash the business actually generates. Merck has both: free cash flow covers its dividend with room to spare, and the payout has risen since 2020. Pfizer’s 5.7% yield provides more income today, paired with a dividend likely to stay flat through the end of the decade. Its payout currently uses more than all of its free cash flow, which is the risk behind that yield. In the next earnings reports, check whether Pfizer’s operating cash flow recovers enough to cover its dividend and whether Merck’s newer drugs keep growing as KEYTRUDA growth slows.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
