Will Antero Midstream’s $27M Buyback Blitz Fuel a Massive Q3 Earnings Breakout on Oct. 28?
Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM | AM Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and holds its call Thursday, October 29, 2026. EPS has missed estimates two quarters in a row, so I want to see record…
Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM | AM Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and holds its call Thursday, October 29, 2026. EPS has missed estimates two quarters in a row, so I want to see record volumes and a faster buyback start showing up in per-share earnings.
Record Volumes, Lagging Per-Share Earnings
Second-quarter revenue of $327.24M beat estimates, and gathering volumes reached a record 4.1+ Bcf/d, +19% YoY. EPS of $0.27 still missed the $0.33 consensus by 18.11%. Interest expense jumped 16% to $55.68M because of HG Energy acquisition financing.
The balance sheet has improved since then. Antero Midstream collected over $370 million from Veolia in July and moved to redeem $650M of 2028 senior notes, which brought pro forma leverage down to 2.8x, under its 3x target. Management also guided to high single-digit sequential EBITDA growth in Q3. The stock closed at $20.85, up 21.09% year to date but off 2.48% over the past month.
Consensus Calls for a Sharp EPS Rebound
| Period | EPS Estimate | Revenue Estimate | EPS Growth | Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (vs. Q3 2025 actual) | $0.3637 | $340.62M | 34.7% | 15.5% |
| FY 2026 | $1.3853 | $1.34B | N/A | N/A |
| FY 2027 (vs. FY 2026 estimate) | $1.6119 | $1.46B | 16.4% | 9.2% |
The year-ago comparison is EPS of $0.27 on revenue of $294.82M. The quarterly EPS consensus comes from just one analyst.
Buyback Pace and Interest Savings Will Set the Tone
Capital return is the main catalyst. Antero Midstream bought back 1.3 million shares for roughly $27 million in Q3, up from 0.4M shares for ~$8M in Q2, and has $283 million of authorization left. With leverage now under target, I’ll be watching whether management commits to that faster pace. On the last call, management said its flexibility allows it “enhance our return of capital to shareholders.”
Interest expense comes next. Paying off the 2028 notes moved that debt onto cheaper, prepayable credit facility loans. That change is the clearest test of whether the Q2 EPS shortfall narrows.
Volumes come third. Q2 was the first full quarter of contribution from the HG assets, and processing and fractionation ran at 100% utilization. Keep an eye on fresh water delivery, which fell 16% YoY last quarter. Also look for updates on the water integration projects that management expects to deliver high single-digit EBITDA growth for 2027.
Finally, there’s East Side Express. The 1.5 to 2 Bcf per day pipeline is expected to cost $200 million to $300 million over the next two to three years. On the July call, CEO Michael Kennedy said “There are 15 projects on this list I’m looking at right now.” Many of those projects are tied to West Virginia power plants and data centers.
A Stronger Balance Sheet Now Needs Stronger EPS
Antero Midstream has posted its 12th consecutive quarter of free cash flow after dividends and pays $0.225/share each quarter, a yield of about 4.4%. Per-share earnings are the weak spot, and two straight misses have pulled attention toward financing costs. The stock has risen after earnings beats, averaging 4.68% on the day of the report. If lower interest costs and a larger buyback start raising EPS, the focus moves from integration to compounding returns.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
