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Live: Will Alphabet Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight After the Market Closes?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 28, 3:37pm ET · Published Oct 28, 3:01pm ET

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Alphabet's Technical Setup Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

GOOGL Google
Technical setup
Support & resistance · chart through Wed, Oct 28
  • R2$361.79+11.8%
  • R1$351.58+8.6%
  • Now$323.71
  • S1$314.90-2.7%
50-day avg
$341.49-5.2% below
200-day avg
$341.19-5.1% below
52-week range
$251.85 – $408.61

At $323.71, Alphabet heads into tonight's earnings below both its 50-day ($341.49) and 200-day ($341.19) averages, which sit almost on top of each other and form one thick ceiling just above. Support at $314.90 is the level that matters if the reaction disappoints, with $351.58 the first resistance a strong report would have to clear.

Polymarket: 34% Odds That Alphabet Beats Earnings Tonight

GOOGL Google
Prediction markets
Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
34%Yes
Polymarket · $15k traded · resolves Wed, Oct 28

Polymarket traders price just a 34% chance that Alphabet's GAAP EPS tops expectations in tonight's earnings report. Options activity points the other way, with call buyers dominating ahead of the report, so one of the two crowds gets a surprise after the close.

Alphabet Traders Lean Bullish Ahead of Q3 Earnings

GOOGL Google
Options positioning
Put/call 0.55Calls dominant
CallsPuts
ATM implied vol
83.4%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 30chain as of Tue, Oct 27

A 0.55 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings says call buyers dominate and traders are leaning toward upside, though crowded optimism is exactly the setup that disappoints when a quarter lands soft. The 83.4% at-the-money implied volatility on the October 30 expiration shows how much movement is priced in, with call open interest stacked at the 325 and 327.5 strikes and puts clustered at 315 and 320.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $315
    3.5k / 1k
  • $317.5
    1.2k / 917
  • $320
    3.4k / 1.5k
  • $322.5
    1.1k / 820
  • $325
    2.7k / 5.2k
  • $327.5
    710 / 3.5k

Alphabet Is Down Over 20% From Highs. Is a Massive Rebound Coming?

Alphabet is set to report its Q3 2026 earnings after the market closes today, with investors closely watching whether its massive AI investments are beginning to pay off.

Google Cloud grew an impressive 82% last quarter, and investors will be looking for continued momentum as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates.

However, that growth comes at a significant cost. Alphabet’s capital spending doubled to $44.92 billion last quarter, pushing free cash flow into negative territory.

Wall Street expects EPS of $3.0030, while GOOGL shares have fallen 5.88% over the past month.

The big question tonight is whether Alphabet can sustain its explosive Cloud growth while showing signs that its enormous AI investments will eventually translate into stronger cash flow.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today after the market closes. The company doubled its debt and suspended buybacks to pay for AI, but shares are up 1.44% today ahead of earnings.

GOOGL earnings explorer

Record Growth Meets a Cash Crunch

Second-quarter revenue reached $119.80 billion, up 24.2% year over year and ahead of the $116.91 billion estimate. EPS of $9.11 exceeded the $3.04 consensus, though a $99.03 billion gain on equity securities inflated that figure. Operating margin expanded 2 points to 34%.

However, Alphabet’s cash flow statement drew more attention. Free cash flow fell to -$5.86 billion, long-term debt rose from $46.5 billion to $98.2 billion, and Alphabet suspended share buybacks. Even so, Sundar Pichai called it “an amazing quarter.”

Shares dropped 7.13% on earnings day, then gained 5.03% over the next week. At $323.69, the stock is up just 3.62% year to date.

Alphabet’s Consensus Estimates

Metric Q3 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Estimate FY 2027 Estimate
Revenue $127.83B +24.9% $500.14B $626.82B
EPS $3.0030 +4.6% $20.5956 $15.116

Analysts project revenue growth close to last quarter’s pace, but EPS growth trails far behind as depreciation from the expansion eats into profit. The FY 2027 EPS figure sits below FY 2026 because this year’s total includes one-time equity gains. EPS estimates have barely moved, going from $3.0190 30 days ago to the current figure.

GOOGL analyst ratings

What to Watch Tonight: Cloud Velocity and Capex Payback

Here are some of the top items I’m watching for in Alphabet’s Q3 earnings tonight:

  1. Cloud acceleration. Growth went from 34% to 48%, then to 63%, and finally to 82% across four quarters. I’ll be watching for an update on backlog, which had nearly doubled to $460 billion+ by the first quarter.
  2. Spending and cash flow. Second-quarter capex rose 100.1%. Analysts will pay close attention to whether management updates its full-year spending plan and whether free cash flow turns positive again.
  3. Margin strength. Operating margin went from 36.1% in the first quarter to 34% in the second. I’ll be checking whether depreciation is driving it lower.
  4. Search and Gemini monetization. Search grew 17%, and the Gemini app reached 950 million monthly users. I’ll be watching whether those users start producing measurable revenue.
  5. Capital return. With buybacks paused and an at-the-market stock sale program of up to $40 billion in place, the risk of shareholder dilution is real.
GOOGL price target

Alphabet Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise Earnings-Day Move 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q2 2026 +199.41% -7.13% +0.65% +5.03% +9.56%
Q1 2026 +94.1% +9.96% +0.23% +3.43% -5.96%
Q4 2025 +7.22% -0.54% -2.53% -6.72% -7.31%
Q3 2025 +26.7% +2.52% -0.1% +1.16% +12.2%

Over the past year, shares moved an average of 0.725% within a week of earnings.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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