Polymarket Traders Missed Nvidia’s October Drop. Here’s What They Predict for November.
Polymarket traders nailed Nvidia's direction nearly 79% of the time across hundreds of markets, then whiffed badly in October. Now they have fresh money on the table for November, and an earnings report that could flip every contract overnight.
Polymarket traders expected Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) to end October near $223.81. The stock instead closed October 30 at $204.64, a 10.4% decline from its September 30 close of $228.38, after reaching $240 during the month. The contract for an October close above $210 averaged 0.767 before resolving No. Across 467 resolved Nvidia markets, the crowd’s favored outcome was correct 78.8% of the time, making October a notable miss in an otherwise accurate record.
How Polymarket Is Pricing November
Each contract trades between zero and one, and its price is the crowd’s implied probability. These odds are a snapshot from midday Monday, November 2, and they move quickly. Shares trade at $207.66, with 28 days left in November.
A “hit” market resolves Yes if the stock reaches a price at any point in the month. A “close above” market depends on where it ends. In the November hit market, which has traded $10,100.70, $216 trades at 0.70, $224 at 0.48, and $240 at 0.18. On the downside, $184 trades at 0.315 and $160 at 0.07. The end-of-November close market prices $200 at 0.64 and $220 at 0.32, but it has traded only $102.50, so it is thin.
Fundamentals Backing the Upside Strikes
Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $96.22 billion, up 105.85% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 beat the $2.09 consensus. Cash stood at $22.44 billion against debt-to-equity of 0.073.
Earnings Are November’s Biggest Event
Nvidia’s next quarterly report is scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, after the close. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%. Gross margin is the share of sales left after paying to make the products, and Polymarket prices a 73% to 75% adjusted margin at 0.81. On the August call, the CFO warned memory price increases “exceeded our prior expectations.” That cost pressure, along with guidance that excludes China data center revenue, are risks that could pull shares toward the downside strikes.
Wall Street Looks a Year Out
Wall Street’s sentiment is bullish, with a consensus target of $328.95. That target covers about 12 months, while the Polymarket figures cover only November, so the two measure different horizons. An AI model’s base case projects $216.97 by December 1.
Recent Swings Make the Odds Look Reasonable
Shares fell 11.6% over the past month. Touching $224 would require about an 8.1% gain, a smaller move than October’s swing.
What the Crowd Is Signaling
Polymarket traders see more room for a modest move than a return to October’s high. The earnings report and AI spending sentiment following last week’s selloff could quickly reset those odds, and October showed that these small markets can be wrong. (All that AI capex still has to be powered, cooled, and networked by somebody, and we rounded up seven of those non-chipmaker suppliers in a free report.)
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
