Goldman Sachs Said Buy This Stock a Year Ago. Now It’s Lost 61%
Goldman Sachs slashed its price target by more than half and still told clients to buy. What happened next turned a bad call into a case study in how a correct diagnosis can still destroy a portfolio.
FMC (NYSE:FMC | FMC Price Prediction) was already bleeding when Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) weighed in. The crop chemicals maker filed its Q3 2025 results on Oct. 29, 2025, with the stock at $25.68. Two sessions later it closed at $14.78.
On Nov. 3, 2025, Goldman cut its price target to $19 from $43 and kept its Buy rating. Since that Oct. 31 close, FMC has lost 58.04%. Meanwhile, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) gained 10.8% over that period. Goldman took a cleaver to its target. The market’s cut went much deeper.
Why Goldman Kept Its Buy Rating
Goldman’s case had real logic behind it. The company beat EBITDA expectations in the third quarter of 2025. The trouble was pricing: generic competition in Latin America had turned out much worse than expected, and that pressure was spreading to FMC’s older, off-patent products. Goldman lowered its valuation to reflect that damage and still saw value in the shares despite the sharp target cut.
Goldman had the diagnosis right. It underestimated how far the damage would spread.
How Generic Pricing Pressure Swallowed the Thesis
The first blow landed on Feb. 4, 2026. Q4 revenue fell 11.5% to $1.083 billion, missing estimates. FMC took a $1.356 billion goodwill impairment, put its India business up for sale, saw Moody’s cut its credit to junk, and authorized a review of strategic options that included a possible sale of the company. Its flagship insecticide, Rynaxypyr, was facing generic competition after losing patent protection.
FMC held up for one quarter. Q1 results on April 29 beat a lowered bar, but price still fell 6% on post-patent Rynaxypyr pricing. On July 29, management cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $1.19 to $1.49, volumes fell 10%, and FMC lined up roughly $1 billion in asset sales, licensing deals, and a $400 million equity investment from Tessenderlo Group to pay down debt.
The critical blow came in October. FMC warned on Oct. 15, then reported on Oct. 29, 2026. Revenue came in at $105.9 million against a $317 million estimate. FMC posted an adjusted loss of $4.41 per share, missing expectations for a $0.08 profit. About $639 million of the revenue hit came from marking down inventory distributors were still holding in Brazil, Argentina, the U.S., and Canada, along with a new North American rebate model. Chief executive Pierre Brondeau said “some customers are holding FMC products that entered the channel at prices above current market levels.” Excluding those actions and India, revenue still fell 22%. Full-year guidance switched to an adjusted loss of $3.50 to $3.66 per share, and stockholders’ equity turned negative.
In 12 months, the pricing problem Goldman flagged in Latin America had forced a repricing of FMC’s sales network across four countries.
Rival Analysts Cut Far Deeper
The later calls left Goldman’s target far behind. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) cut its target to $12 on Oct. 13, 2026. Three days later, Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) downgraded FMC to a Hold with a $5 target. Goldman was still on the Q3 conference call, asking how the roughly $500 million North American pricing charge would affect cash flow.
Analysts covering the stock now assign it six Buy ratings, nine Hold ratings, one Sell rating and one Strong Sell rating, with an average price target of $8.71.
Verdict on Goldman’s Call
Missed: Goldman correctly identified generic pricing pressure as the threat. Its $19 target assumed the damage would stay contained. Instead it spread through FMC’s distribution channel and balance sheet. The stock’s high since the call was $18, so the target was never reached, and the low reached $4.37.
What FMC Investors Face Now
The stock traded around $6.44 on the morning of Monday, Nov. 2, inside a 52-week range of $4.37 to $18, with a market cap near $964.5 million and a forward P/E of about 5.
Bull case: With the channel clearance done, management’s preliminary adjusted EBITDA targets are $650 million to $730 million for 2027 and $760 million to $840 million for 2028.
Bear case: FMC carries net debt of about $3.4 billion, its debt measured against covenant EBITDA stands at 6.1x against a 6.75x limit returning Dec. 31, 2026, and 2026 free cash flow is guided to negative $350 million to negative $150 million.
The evidence favors the bears for now. The 2027 recovery comes from a management team that cut guidance in February, July and October, and those targets depend on how fast distributors start reordering. If the clearance gets products moving by mid-2027, the low valuation leaves room for a rebound. If reorders stay thin, the covenant buffer contracts quickly.
Next time your brokerage app sends an alert, remember this: When a firm slashes its target and keeps the Buy, the size of the cut tells you more than the rating it kept.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
